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2024 November hottest on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior November when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for November 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for November, and if 2024 November is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2024 November is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Event Details

Total Volume: $259.0K
24h Volume: $15.1K
Total Liquidity: $48.5K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 11/30/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The question of whether November 2024 will be the hottest on record represents a critical climate prediction challenge that combines long-term warming trends with short-term climate variability. The context is particularly noteworthy given that 2023 has already set numerous temperature records, with November 2023 being confirmed as the warmest November in recorded history. The current strong El Niño conditions, combined with ongoing climate change effects and reduced aerosol cooling, create a complex backdrop for temperature predictions. While historical trends and climate models suggest continued warming, the specific requirement that November 2024 must exceed (not merely tie) all previous November temperatures creates a high bar for a "Yes" outcome, particularly given the recent record set in November 2023.

Analysis

Historical Context

  • 2023 has broken multiple temperature records, with November 2023 setting a new benchmark at 1.44°C above the 20th-century average
  • The past nine years have been the warmest on record, indicating a strong warming trend
  • Current El Niño conditions are contributing to global temperature increases

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

Yes Outcome (November 2024 Sets New Record)

Supporting factors:

  • Strong El Niño conditions expected to persist into early 2024
  • Continuing reduction in aerosol cooling effect
  • Long-term warming trend from greenhouse gas emissions
  • NOAA projects >99% chance that 2024 will rank among top 5 warmest years

Challenges:

  • Must exceed (not tie) November 2023's record
  • El Niño may weaken by late 2024
  • Possible transition to La Niña conditions later in 2024

No Outcome (November 2024 Does Not Set New Record)

Supporting factors:

  • Very high bar set by November 2023
  • Potential La Niña development by late 2024
  • Natural variability in temperature patterns
  • Market requires strictly higher temperatures, not equal

Key Factors to Watch

  1. El Niño Evolution
  • Current strength and projected duration
  • Potential transition timing to La Niña
  • Impact on global temperature patterns
  1. Aerosol Forcing
  • Changes in industrial emissions
  • Maritime shipping regulations
  • Air quality policies
  1. Ocean Heat Content
  • Continued warming of ocean surfaces
  • Regional temperature anomalies
  • Marine heatwave patterns
  1. Solar Activity
  • Solar cycle variations
  • Impact on global temperatures

Recent Developments

  • November 2023 set new temperature record
  • El Niño conditions reached 2°C in Niño 3.4 region
  • Scientists project potential for La Niña transition in late 2024

Prediction

Based on the available evidence, I assess a 15% probability that November 2024 will be the hottest on record. While continued warming is likely, the specific requirement to exceed (not tie) November 2023's record creates a high bar. The potential transition to La Niña conditions by late 2024 further reduces the likelihood of a new record. The market appears to be underpricing the "Yes" outcome at 3.1%, suggesting some opportunity for traders despite the overall low probability.

2024 November hottest on record?

Yes:15.0%
No:85.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

2024 November hottest on record?

Yes
1.9%
No
98.1%
Liquidity: $48.5K
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