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70°F in NYC in December?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a high temperature of 70°F or greater is recorded in Central Park, New York City for any day between December 1 and December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve as soon as a temperature of 70°F or greater is recorded for the named weather station. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the NOWData tab on the climate page for New York City (https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx) when the location is set to "NY-Central Park Area", and "Daily data for a month" is selected, with the date set to "2024-12". The figures in the "Maximum" column will be used to resolve this market. If this data is unavailable at resolution time, this market may remain open until January 14, 2025 has passed, after which another resolution source will be selected.

Event Details

Total Volume: $21.6K
24h Volume: $1.9K
Total Liquidity: $8.2K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The question of whether New York City will experience a temperature of 70°F or higher in December 2024 sits at the intersection of historical weather patterns, climate change trends, and current meteorological conditions. Recent years have shown unprecedented warming patterns in NYC, with the city experiencing record-breaking warm winters and an unusual lack of snow. The analysis is particularly timely given NYC's current streak of over 650 days without significant snowfall and the influence of El Niño conditions, which typically bring warmer winter temperatures to the northeastern United States. However, December temperatures reaching 70°F would still be extremely unusual, even in the context of recent warming trends.

Analysis

Historical Context

  • NYC's winters have been trending warmer, with temperature increases of 0.25°F per decade over the last century
  • January 2023 was the warmest on record, averaging 43.5°F (9.8°F above normal)
  • The city is experiencing its longest streak without significant snowfall in recorded history

Current Conditions

  • Strong El Niño conditions are present and expected to influence weather patterns
  • Winter 2023-2024 forecast indicates:
    • Above-average temperatures, especially early winter
    • Reduced snowfall probability
    • More rain events instead of snow
    • Temperatures running 3-6 degrees above normal

Key Factors to Watch

  1. El Niño Influence
  • Current El Niño conditions typically bring warmer winters to NYC
  • May persist through early 2024, affecting December conditions
  1. Climate Change Impact
  • NYC experiencing accelerating warming trends
  • More frequent extreme weather events
  • Rising average temperatures across all seasons
  1. Weather Pattern Shifts
  • Pacific Jet Stream positioning
  • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) effects
  • Polar Vortex behavior

Risk Factors

  • December is typically one of NYC's coldest months
  • Historical precedent for 70°F+ in December is extremely rare
  • Weather patterns can shift significantly year-to-year
  • El Niño conditions may weaken by late 2024

Prediction

Based on the available data and analysis, I assess there is approximately a 15% chance that NYC will record a temperature of 70°F or greater in December 2024. While warming trends and El Niño conditions support higher winter temperatures, reaching 70°F in December remains an extreme outlier event.

NYC_December_2024_70F

Yes:15.0%
No:85.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

70°F in NYC in December?

Yes
8.5%
No
91.5%
Liquidity: $8.2K
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