← Back to Events

AFC Champion

AFC Champion

Event Details

Total Volume: $30.2M
24h Volume: $1.6M
Total Liquidity: $576.8K
Markets: 16
Event Ends: 1/26/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

The AFC Championship race is reaching a critical phase as teams enter the final stretch of the 2024 NFL regular season. Based on current standings and recent performance, several clear tiers have emerged among contenders. The Kansas City Chiefs (10-1) and Buffalo Bills (9-2) have established themselves as frontrunners, while several teams including the Steelers (8-3) and Texans (7-5) remain viable contenders. The playoff picture is becoming clearer, with some teams like the Bengals (4-7) and Browns (3-8) facing increasingly difficult paths to contention. The remaining schedule and head-to-head matchups will be crucial in determining final seeding and playoff berths. Recent injuries and performance trends suggest the championship race may come down to 3-4 serious contenders.

Analysis

Current AFC Landscape

Top Contenders

  • Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)

    • Leading AFC with dominant record
    • Relatively favorable remaining schedule
    • Strong playoff experience
  • Buffalo Bills (9-2)

    • Hold head-to-head tiebreaker vs Chiefs
    • Six-game winning streak
    • Strong offensive performance

Secondary Contenders

  • Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)

    • Resilient despite recent loss
    • In position for division title
    • Questions about offensive consistency
  • Houston Texans (7-5)

    • Leading AFC South
    • Showing promise but inconsistent
    • Tough remaining schedule

On the Bubble

  • Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
  • Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)
  • Miami Dolphins (5-6)

Effectively Eliminated

  • Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)
  • Cleveland Browns (3-8)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Remaining Schedule Strength

    • Chiefs have favorable home games
    • Bills face challenging division matchups
    • Head-to-head games between contenders
  2. Injury Situations

    • Impact of existing injuries on team performance
    • Risk of late-season injuries affecting playoff runs
  3. Momentum and Form

    • Bills riding six-game win streak
    • Chiefs showing consistency
    • Several teams struggling with consistency
  4. Playoff Experience

    • Chiefs and Bills have significant recent playoff success
    • Question marks for newer contenders like Texans

Recent Developments

  • Chiefs suffered first loss to Bills
  • Several teams (Bengals, Browns) effectively out of contention
  • Wild card race remains highly competitive

Prediction

Based on current data and trends, I predict the following probabilities for AFC Championship contenders: - Kansas City Chiefs: 35% chance - Buffalo Bills: 30% chance - Pittsburgh Steelers: 15% chance - Houston Texans: 8% chance - Field (all other teams): 12% chance Teams like the Bengals, Browns, and Jaguars can be effectively ruled out due to their current records and remaining schedules.

AFC_Champion

Kansas_City_Chiefs:35.0%
Buffalo_Bills:30.0%
Pittsburgh_Steelers:15.0%
Houston_Texans:8.0%
Field:12.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10

Market Options

Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship?

Yes
1.5%
No
98.6%
Liquidity: $576.8K
Trade →

Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?

Yes
25.5%
No
74.5%
Liquidity: $576.8K
Trade →

Will the Texans win the AFC Championship?

Yes
4.5%
No
95.5%
Liquidity: $576.8K
Trade →

Will the Browns win the AFC Championship?

Yes
0.3%
No
99.8%
Liquidity: $576.8K
Trade →

Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship?

Yes
0.0%
No
100.0%
Liquidity: $576.8K
Trade →

Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?

Yes
0.3%
No
99.8%
Liquidity: $576.8K
Trade →

Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship?

Yes
0.4%
No
99.7%
Liquidity: $576.8K
Trade →

Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship?

Yes
5.1%
No
95.0%
Liquidity: $576.8K
Trade →

Will the Colts win the AFC Championship?

Yes
0.4%
No
99.6%
Liquidity: $576.8K
Trade →

Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship?

Yes
14.2%
No
85.8%
Liquidity: $576.8K
Trade →

Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?

Yes
2.8%
No
97.3%
Liquidity: $576.8K
Trade →

Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship?

Yes
3.5%
No
96.5%
Liquidity: $576.8K
Trade →

Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?

Yes
29.0%
No
71.0%
Liquidity: $576.8K
Trade →

Will the Jets win the AFC Championship?

Yes
0.3%
No
99.8%
Liquidity: $576.8K
Trade →

Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship?

Yes
4.8%
No
95.2%
Liquidity: $576.8K
Trade →

Will the Titans win the AFC Championship?

Yes
0.3%
No
99.8%
Liquidity: $576.8K
Trade →