The AFC East division title race for the 2023 NFL season has already been decided, with the Buffalo Bills clinching the division title after defeating the Miami Dolphins in a crucial Week 18 matchup. The Bills finished with an 11-6 record, securing the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs, while the Dolphins also finished 11-6 but dropped to the #6 seed after losing the head-to-head tiebreaker. Given that this event has already concluded and the Bills have definitively won the AFC East, the current market prices showing 98.2% for the Bills and minimal probabilities for other teams accurately reflect the known outcome. Any remaining market activity likely represents cleanup of outstanding positions rather than uncertainty about the result.

AFC East Division Winner Analysis

Final Standings

• Buffalo Bills: 11-6 (Division Winner)
• Miami Dolphins: 11-6
• New York Jets: 7-10
• New England Patriots: 4-13

Key Factors That Determined Outcome

• Critical Week 18 Game: The Bills defeated the Dolphins in a head-to-head matchup that directly determined the division winner
• Late Season Momentum: The Bills won four consecutive games to close out the season
• Head-to-Head Results: Buffalo's victory over Miami gave them the tiebreaker advantage

Market Implications

• Current market prices near 100% for Bills winning are appropriate
• Any remaining open positions should be closed out
• Small spreads between bid/ask likely due to settlement mechanics rather than uncertainty

Trading Considerations

• No meaningful trading opportunities remain as outcome is determined
• Focus should be on settlement and position closure
• Future markets for 2024 season will open separately

Lessons for Future Markets

• Head-to-head games between division rivals crucial
• Late season momentum important
• Injuries to key players can significantly impact division races