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AFC North Winner
AFC North Winner
Event Details
Total Volume: $119.7K
24h Volume: $31
Total Liquidity: $127.0K
Markets: 4
Event Ends: 1/6/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The AFC North division title race is reaching its conclusion as we near the end of the 2024 NFL season. The Baltimore Ravens have established themselves as clear favorites, leading the division with a 13-4 record and showing strong performance metrics on both offense and defense. The Pittsburgh Steelers remain in contention at 10-7, while both the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals have been effectively eliminated due to poor records and significant injuries.
The current market prices largely reflect the on-field reality, with the Ravens holding a 66% chance of winning the division. The Steelers maintain an outside chance at 33.5%, while both the Browns and Bengals have negligible probabilities due to their eliminated status. Key factors influencing these odds include recent team performance, injury situations (particularly to quarterbacks Joe Burrow and Deshaun Watson), and remaining schedule strength.
Analysis
Current Division Standings
-
Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
- League-best point differential (+203)
- Strong performance on both offense and defense
- Currently hold #1 seed in AFC
-
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
- Negative point differential (-20)
- Showing resilience despite injuries
- Still mathematically alive
-
Cleveland Browns (11-6)
- Season derailed by QB injuries
- Effectively eliminated from contention
- Strong defense but offensive struggles
-
Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
- Lost QB Joe Burrow to season-ending injury
- Eliminated from playoff contention
- Significant regression from previous season
Key Factors Influencing Outcomes
Ravens' Strengths
- Top scoring defense (16.5 points allowed per game)
- Lamar Jackson playing at MVP level
- Strong momentum with recent wins
- Favorable remaining schedule
Steelers' Position
- Resilient despite offensive struggles
- Key injuries impacting depth
- Need significant help to overtake Ravens
- Positive recent form but difficult path
Eliminated Teams
- Browns: Lost Watson to season-ending surgery
- Bengals: Burrow injury ended playoff hopes
- Both teams focusing on 2025 season
Recent Developments
- Ravens dominated recent playoff game against Texans
- Steelers showing improved offensive production
- Injury reports favor Ravens' health situation
- Statistical models strongly favor Ravens (63% win probability in upcoming games)
Prediction
The Baltimore Ravens are highly likely to win the AFC North (75% probability), with their strong record and performance metrics making them clear favorites. The Pittsburgh Steelers retain an outside chance (25%) but would need an unlikely combination of results. The Browns and Bengals are effectively eliminated and have 0% chance of winning the division.
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North?
Yes:75.0%
No:25.0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the AFC North?
Yes:25.0%
No:75.0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the AFC North?
Yes:0.0%
No:100.0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the AFC North?
Yes:0.0%
No:100.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10