The AFC South division race appears to be in its final stages, with the Houston Texans emerging as the clear favorite with an 89% probability of winning the division. This represents a significant shift from early season expectations when the Jacksonville Jaguars were considered the frontrunners. The search results indicate several key developments that have shaped the division race, including strong performance from Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud, disappointing results from the Jaguars, and continued struggles from both the Colts and Titans. Recent head-to-head matchups and current standings support the market's strong lean toward Houston claiming the division title.

AFC South Division Race Analysis

Current State of Division

• Houston Texans lead the division following strong late-season performance
• All AFC South teams recently lost games, keeping division race technically alive
• Jaguars have fallen from early season favorite status
• Colts remain in contention but as longshot
• Titans effectively eliminated from contention

Team-by-Team Analysis

Houston Texans (89.0% Yes)

• Strengths:
  • Strong rookie QB play from C.J. Stroud
  • Improved coaching under DeMeco Ryans
  • Momentum from recent victories
• Risks:
  • Stroud's health (concussion protocol mentioned)
  • Inexperienced roster in playoff chase
  • Tough remaining schedule

Jacksonville Jaguars (0.4% Yes)

• Strengths:
  • Proven playoff experience
  • Trevor Lawrence's development
  • Strong receiving corps
• Weaknesses:
  • Recent losing streak
  • Defensive inconsistency
  • Lost key head-to-head matchups

Indianapolis Colts (7.9% Yes)

• Strengths:
  • Competitive despite expectations
  • Anthony Richardson potential
• Weaknesses:
  • Quarterback uncertainty
  • Offensive line issues
  • Limited playoff experience

Tennessee Titans (1.8% Yes)

• Effectively eliminated
• Focus shifting to rebuild
• Questions about coaching future

Key Factors to Watch

1. Remaining Schedule
2. Health of key players (especially Stroud)
3. Head-to-head matchups
4. Late season momentum
5. Weather impacts on key games

Recent Developments

• All division teams lost recent games
• Texans maintaining position despite setbacks
• Market confidence growing in Houston
• Jaguars' odds plummeting from early season highs