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Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate between October 25, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

Event Details

Total Volume: $1.8M
24h Volume: $47.9K
Total Liquidity: $78.8K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market focuses on whether Iran will initiate another direct military strike against Israel before the end of 2024, following Iran's January 15, 2024 missile strikes in Erbil, Iraq, which targeted alleged Israeli intelligence facilities. The key consideration is that only direct military action by Iran, officially acknowledged by the Iranian government, would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The current geopolitical landscape shows escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, with Iran primarily operating through proxy forces like Hezbollah and Hamas. While Iran has demonstrated willingness to conduct direct strikes as evidenced by the January 2024 Erbil attack, they have generally preferred to maintain strategic ambiguity and operate through proxies to avoid direct confrontation. The current market prices suggesting a 16% probability of another direct strike reflect this historical preference while acknowledging the heightened risk environment.

Analysis

Current Situation

Recent Developments

  • Iran conducted missile strikes on Erbil, Iraq on January 15, 2024, targeting alleged Israeli intelligence facilities
  • Ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict has increased regional tensions
  • Iranian-backed militias have conducted over 70 attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria
  • Israel is preparing for potential escalation with Hezbollah in Lebanon

Strategic Context

  • Iran typically operates through proxy forces rather than direct military action
  • Iranian military and political leadership maintain strategic ambiguity
  • Israel has increased military preparedness and defense spending
  • US maintains significant military presence in region as deterrent

Outcome Analysis

Scenario 1: Another Direct Iranian Strike (16%)

Factors supporting:

  • Precedent set by January 2024 Erbil strike
  • Escalating regional tensions
  • Israeli military preparations against Iran
  • Potential for miscalculation

Factors against:

  • Iran's preference for proxy warfare
  • Risk of direct US intervention
  • Economic costs of escalation
  • International diplomatic pressure

Scenario 2: No Further Direct Strikes (84%)

Factors supporting:

  • Historical Iranian strategy favoring proxy warfare
  • Deterrence from US military presence
  • Economic constraints on Iran
  • Risk of broader conflict

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Military Movements
  • Israeli operations against Iranian proxies
  • US force positioning in region
  • Iranian military exercises or deployments
  1. Political Developments
  • US election implications
  • Iranian domestic politics
  • Israeli government stability
  • Regional diplomatic initiatives
  1. Proxy Activity
  • Hezbollah operations
  • Hamas-Israel conflict developments
  • Activities of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq/Syria
  1. Economic Factors
  • Impact of sanctions on Iran
  • Oil prices and Iranian revenue
  • Military spending capabilities

Prediction

Based on the available evidence, I assess a 15% probability of Iran conducting another direct military strike on Israel in 2024, slightly lower than the current market price of 16%. The primary scenario for such an action would be in response to a significant Israeli operation against Iranian interests or proxies. However, Iran's consistent preference for proxy warfare and the significant risks of direct confrontation make continued restraint from direct military action the most likely outcome (85% probability). Confidence level: 7/10 - While historical patterns and strategic incentives provide good guidance, the volatile situation creates significant uncertainty.

Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?

Yes:15.0%
No:85.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?

Yes
14.0%
No
86.0%
Liquidity: $78.8K
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