Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between October 27, ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Event Details
Event Analysis
Summary
Analysis
Current Situation Analysis
Regional Context
- Israel is engaged in intensive military operations in Gaza following October 7 Hamas attack
- Iranian-backed groups have increased attacks on Israeli and US targets
- Multiple fronts of conflict including Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon border, and maritime threats
- US military involvement in responding to Iranian proxy attacks
Outcome Analysis
Scenario 1: Israeli Military Action (18% Current Market Price)
Factors supporting this outcome:
- Escalating attacks from Iranian proxies
- Netanyahu's framing of conflict as against "Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas axis"
- Israeli history of preemptive strikes against perceived threats
- Recent Iranian missile strikes in Iraq/Syria
Factors against:
- Military resources focused on Gaza operations
- US pressure to avoid regional escalation
- Limited Israeli capacity for multi-front war
- International diplomatic considerations
Scenario 2: No Military Action (82% Current Market Price)
Factors supporting this outcome:
- Current focus on Gaza campaign
- Preference for targeting proxies over direct confrontation
- US strategic preference for containment
- Cost and risks of opening new front
Key Factors to Watch
- Proxy Activity Level
- Frequency and intensity of Hezbollah attacks
- Houthi maritime threats
- Actions by Iraqi militias
- Israeli Military Capacity
- Progress in Gaza operations
- Ability to sustain multiple fronts
- Domestic political support
- International Dynamics
- US diplomatic pressure
- Regional stability
- Iranian nuclear program developments
Recent Developments
- January 2024 Iranian strikes in Iraq/Syria
- Ongoing exchanges with Hezbollah
- Maritime security threats in Red Sea
- US military responses to proxy attacks
Prediction
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?
Sources
- https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-19-2023
- https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-november-21-2023
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Erbil_attack
- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/29/us/politics/israel-iran-gaza-us-attacks.html
- https://www.gov.il/en/departments/news/spoke-statement251023
- https://www.idf.il/172510