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Another monkeypox case in US in 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a second confirmed case of Monkeypox (Mpox) Clade 1 in the territory of the United States of America is reported between November 20 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g. the CDC), however sources from NGOs like the WHO, or information from other reputable medical institutions may also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $19.5K
24h Volume: $178
Total Liquidity: $2.5K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market focuses on whether another confirmed case of Mpox Clade I will be reported in the United States between November 20 and December 31, 2024. This comes amid heightened global attention to Mpox transmission, particularly following concerning developments in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) where Clade I infections have shown new transmission patterns through sexual contact.
The CDC issued a health advisory in December 2023 highlighting the emergence and spread of Mpox Clade I in the DRC, though noting no confirmed cases in the US at that time. The resolution window occurs during a traditionally higher-risk period for infectious diseases due to increased holiday travel and indoor gatherings, making this a complex prediction requiring careful analysis of public health data and transmission patterns.
Analysis
Current Status of Mpox
- No confirmed Clade I cases reported in the US as of latest CDC data
- Ongoing low-level transmission of Mpox globally
- New evidence of sexual transmission of Clade I in DRC, expanding known transmission routes
Risk Factors
Increasing Risk
- Discovery of sexual transmission pathway for Clade I
- Low vaccination rates in US (only ~25% of eligible population fully vaccinated)
- Holiday travel period during resolution window
- Documented cases in DRC showing concerning transmission patterns
Decreasing Risk
- No direct flights between US and DRC
- Enhanced surveillance and testing capabilities
- Some cross-protection from previous vaccination/infection
- Established public health response protocols
Key Monitoring Points
-
Travel Patterns
- International travel during holiday season
- Connections between endemic regions and US
-
Public Health Measures
- Vaccination rates
- Surveillance effectiveness
- Testing capabilities
-
Global Situation
- Outbreak status in DRC
- Any spread to intermediate countries
- New transmission patterns
Recent Developments
- CDC's inclusion of Jynneos vaccine in 2024 immunization schedule
- Continued low-level circulation of virus globally
- Enhanced surveillance for Clade I specifically
Prediction
Based on the available evidence, I assess a 15% probability of a confirmed Mpox Clade I case in the US during the specified period. While new transmission patterns and holiday travel present increased risk, existing public health measures and the short time window make a case less likely than not.
Will there be another confirmed case of Mpox Clade I in the US between Nov 20-Dec 31, 2024?
Yes:15.0%
No:85.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10