← Back to Events
Bird flu pandemic before August 2025?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares H5N1 (bird flu) a pandemic by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information form the WHO, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $8.6K
24h Volume: $501
Total Liquidity: $10.3K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 7/31/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The question of whether H5N1 (bird flu) will be declared a pandemic by the WHO before August 2025 requires careful analysis of current surveillance data, transmission patterns, and official risk assessments. Recent WHO reports consistently categorize the public health risk from H5N1 as low, despite ongoing cases in birds and occasional spillover events into mammals and humans.
The key consideration is whether H5N1 could develop sustained human-to-human transmission capabilities within the next 8 months. While the virus continues to evolve and adapt, showing concerning signs in mammalian hosts, there is currently no evidence of efficient human transmission. The WHO and other health organizations maintain robust surveillance systems and are actively monitoring the situation, but their assessments suggest a pandemic declaration remains unlikely in the near term.
Analysis
Current Status of H5N1
Global Situation
- Widespread circulation of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in birds globally
- Record outbreaks in poultry and wild birds across multiple continents
- Increasing cases of mammalian spillover events
- Limited human cases, mostly linked to direct animal exposure
Recent Human Cases
- Australian case (2.5-year-old girl) in May 2024
- Cambodian cases in late 2023
- All cases linked to direct animal contact
- No evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission
Risk Assessment Factors
Supporting Lower Risk
- WHO consistently assesses public health risk as low
- No sustained human-to-human transmission observed
- Existing surveillance systems working effectively
- Preventive measures and vaccines in development
Supporting Higher Risk
- Continued evolution of virus in mammalian hosts
- Increasing spillover events into various species
- Geographic expansion of the virus
- Potential for undetected cases in regions with limited surveillance
Key Monitoring Points
- New human cases and transmission patterns
- Genetic changes in circulating viruses
- WHO risk assessments and updates
- Effectiveness of current containment measures
Recent Developments
- Joint FAO-WHO-WOAH assessment maintains low risk level
- Enhanced surveillance and preparedness measures
- Focus on "One Health" approach to prevention
- Development of new candidate vaccine viruses
Prediction
Based on comprehensive analysis of current evidence and expert assessments, I predict a "No" outcome (88% probability) versus "Yes" (12% probability) for an H5N1 pandemic declaration before August 2025. The key factors supporting this prediction are the consistent low risk assessments from WHO, lack of sustained human transmission, and effective surveillance systems in place. However, the situation requires continued monitoring due to the virus's evolution and adaptation potential.
Bird flu pandemic before August 2025?
Yes:12.0%
No:88.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON519
- https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/joint-fao-who-woah-preliminary-assessment-of-recent-influenza-a(h5n1)-viruses
- https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/spotlights/2022-2023/h5n1-technical-report_december.htm
- https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-joint-fao-who-woah-assessment-of-recent-influenza-a(h5n1)-virus-events-in-animals-and-people