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Bird flu pandemic in 2024?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares H5N1 (bird flu) a pandemic by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information form the WHO, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $250.7K
24h Volume: $1
Total Liquidity: $45.9K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The question of whether H5N1 bird flu will be declared a pandemic by the WHO in 2024 has become increasingly relevant given recent developments in viral adaptation and cross-species transmission. While several concerning cases have emerged, including human infections and evidence of mammalian adaptation, the overall risk assessment from major health organizations remains low.
The current market pricing of 2.5% for "Yes" and 97.5% for "No" appears largely aligned with expert assessments, given the limited time remaining in 2024 and the absence of sustained human-to-human transmission - a key criterion for pandemic declaration. However, recent studies showing increased adaptability of the virus and its presence in multiple species warrant careful monitoring of the situation.
Analysis
Current Situation
Recent Developments
- Multiple human cases reported in 2023-2024, including:
- Two cases in Cambodia (November 2023)
- A critical case in a Canadian teenager
- First H5N2 human case in Mexico (May 2024)
- New reassortant H5N1 strain identified in Asia
- Evidence of mammalian adaptation in Argentina
Risk Assessment
- WHO continues to rate global risk as low
- No sustained human-to-human transmission observed
- Sporadic cases remain linked to direct animal contact
- Time constraint: Only ~1 month remaining in 2024
Key Factors to Watch
Viral Evolution
- Mutations showing enhanced binding to human cells
- Cross-species transmission capability increasing
- New reassortant strains emerging in Asia
Surveillance and Monitoring
- Enhanced global surveillance systems in place
- Rapid response capabilities demonstrated
- Strong international cooperation framework
Criteria for Pandemic Declaration
Requirements from WHO:
- Sustained human-to-human transmission
- Global spread
- Novel strain with limited population immunity
Market Analysis
"Yes" Outcome (2.5%)
Factors supporting:
- Increasing viral adaptability
- Multiple human cases reported
- Enhanced mammalian transmission
"No" Outcome (97.5%)
Factors supporting:
- Limited time remaining in 2024
- No sustained human transmission
- Strong surveillance/containment measures
- WHO's current low risk assessment
Prediction
Based on the available evidence and expert assessments, I agree with the market's strong lean toward "No" (97.5%). However, I would adjust slightly to allocate a 4% probability to "Yes" given recent concerning developments in viral adaptation and cross-species transmission. The remaining month in 2024 makes a pandemic declaration highly unlikely without dramatic developments, but the risk is not zero given the virus's demonstrated ability to evolve and adapt.
Bird flu pandemic in 2024?
Yes:4.0%
No:96.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2023-DON495
- https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/canadian-probe-teens-critical-h5n1-infection-finds-no-clear-source
- https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON520
- https://www.news-medical.net/news/20240229/H5N1-variant-spreads-between-species-endangering-wildlife.aspx
- https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/officials-warn-h5n1-avian-flu-reassortant-circulating-parts-asia