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Bolsonaro arrested in 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro is arrested between November 20 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $8.7K
24h Volume: $365
Total Liquidity: $6.9K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro faces mounting legal pressure from multiple investigations, including allegations of orchestrating a coup attempt following his 2022 election loss, illegal espionage operations during his presidency, and involvement in plots against current President Lula. Recent developments include his indictment along with 36 others for attempted coup, the arrest of military personnel involved in assassination plots, and investigations into intelligence agency misconduct under his administration.
The period in question (November 20 - December 31, 2024) comes at a critical juncture as these various investigations mature and potentially converge. With Bolsonaro already barred from running for office and facing increasing scrutiny from federal prosecutors, the possibility of arrest has become more concrete, though significant political and social barriers remain.
Analysis
Current Legal Situation
- Multiple active investigations:
- Coup attempt following 2022 election
- Illegal espionage through intelligence agency (Abin)
- Connection to assassination plots against Lula
- Misuse of presidential gifts
- Vaccine records falsification
Key Factors Affecting Arrest Probability
Supporting Arrest Possibility
- Federal police have formally indicted Bolsonaro for coup attempt
- Recent arrests of military personnel in assassination plot investigation
- Growing evidence from intelligence agency investigation
- Multiple concurrent investigations increasing pressure
- Prosecution of January 8 riot participants setting precedents
Factors Against Arrest
- Strong political support base as shown in recent rallies
- Complexity of building cases against former presidents
- Political sensitivity of arresting opposition leaders
- Claims of political persecution could mobilize supporters
- Potential parliamentary efforts for amnesty
Critical Timing Considerations
- Investigations need to mature into formal charges
- Prosecutor-General must decide on proceeding with charges
- Court processes could extend beyond the specified timeframe
- Political calendar and timing sensitivities
- Potential for delays through legal challenges
Recent Developments
- Dismissal of intelligence officials linked to illegal surveillance
- Police raids on properties connected to Bolsonaro's son
- Indictment of 37 individuals including Bolsonaro
- Growing evidence of organized efforts to undermine democracy
Prediction
Based on the comprehensive analysis of current investigations, legal developments, and political context, I assess a 35% probability that Bolsonaro will be arrested during the specified timeframe. While evidence and legal pressure are mounting, procedural requirements and political complications make arrest within this specific window less likely than no arrest.
Will_Bolsonaro_Be_Arrested
Yes:35.0%
No:65.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20231019-brazil-congress-asks-prosecutors-to-probe-jair-bolsonaro-over-riots
- https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/arrests-plot-kill-lula-coup-attempt-rcna180773
- https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-01-26/police-investigate-brazils-intelligence-chief-under-bolsonaro-over-claims-of-political-spying.html
- https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20240131-lula-fires-brazil-s-intel-agency-no-2-over-alleged-illegal-espionage
- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-68398676