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Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 20th Bundestag, which is the sitting parliament of Germany, is dissolved between November 6 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $321.5K
24h Volume: $9.1K
Total Liquidity: $15.7K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The question of whether the 20th Bundestag will be dissolved between November 6 and December 31, 2024, comes amid significant political fragmentation in Germany. Recent polling shows the ruling coalition parties (SPD, Greens, FDP) collectively holding only about 35% support, while opposition parties like the CDU/CSU and AfD have gained strength.
The current market pricing of 81% probability for dissolution appears significantly overconfident given the institutional stability of German politics and the high constitutional barriers to dissolution. While political pressures exist, including migration concerns and economic challenges, the evidence suggests the likelihood of dissolution in this specific timeframe is much lower than market prices indicate.
Analysis
Political Background
Current Coalition Status
- SPD-Green-FDP "traffic light" coalition showing weakness in polls
- Coalition parties collectively at ~35% support
- AfD at historically high levels (~21-22%)
- CDU/CSU leading with ~30-32% support
Constitutional Framework
- Dissolution of Bundestag requires specific conditions:
- Loss of confidence vote
- Failed chancellor election
- Constitutional court ruling
- High barriers intentionally built into system for stability
Recent Developments
Political Dynamics
- Die Linke parliamentary group dissolved in December 2023
- Formation of new BSW group under Sahra Wagenknecht
- Multiple state elections scheduled for September 2024:
- Sachsen (Sept 1)
- Thüringen (Sept 1)
- Brandenburg (Sept 22)
Polling Trends
- AfD showing consistent strength ~21-22%
- Coalition parties declining or stagnant
- FDP hovering around 5-6% threshold
- High fragmentation of political landscape
Key Factors to Watch
- Coalition Stability
- Internal disputes between coalition partners
- Budget negotiations and fiscal policy
- Migration policy tensions
- Constitutional Court Rulings
- Pending decisions that could impact government
- Legal challenges to electoral processes
- External Pressures
- Economic conditions
- Migration situation
- International developments
Probability Assessment Factors
Arguments For Dissolution
- Weak coalition polling numbers
- Rising AfD support creating pressure
- Budget and policy disagreements
Arguments Against Dissolution
- High constitutional barriers
- Historical stability of German system
- Regular election scheduled for 2025
- No clear alternative coalition visible
Prediction
Based on the available evidence, I assess there is approximately a 15% chance of the Bundestag being dissolved between November 6 and December 31, 2024. The current market price of 81% appears significantly overvalued. While political pressures exist, the constitutional and practical barriers to dissolution are substantial, and the specific timeframe makes tactical dissolution unlikely. Recommend SELLING at current prices.
Will the 20th Bundestag be dissolved between November 6 and December 31, 2024?
Yes:15.0%
No:85.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10