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Fresno State vs. UCLA
In the upcoming CFB game, scheduled for November 30 at 12:00AM ET: If the Fresno State win, the market will resolve to “Fresno State”. If the UCLA win, the market will resolve to “UCLA”. If the game is not completed by December 7, 2024 (11:59 PM ET) or it ends in a tie, the market will resolve 50-50.
Event Details
Total Volume: $61
24h Volume: $39
Total Liquidity: $15.0K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 11/30/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The upcoming matchup between Fresno State and UCLA represents an intriguing clash between a Mountain West Conference team and a program transitioning to the Big Ten. UCLA finished their 2023 season with an 8-5 record, showing defensive strength but offensive inconsistency. Fresno State demonstrated potential under head coach Jeff Tedford, though health concerns impacted their 2023 campaign.
Recent performances from both teams provide meaningful context - UCLA's strong defensive metrics (ranking 9th nationally in opponent yards per play) contrast with their offensive struggles, while Fresno State showed resilience in their bowl victory over New Mexico State despite coaching challenges. The game's outcome will likely hinge on UCLA's quarterback situation and Fresno State's ability to maintain offensive productivity against a stout Bruins defense.
Analysis
Team Analysis
UCLA Bruins
- Defensive Strength:
- Ranked 9th nationally in opponent yards per play (4.5)
- 18th in opponent points per game (19.3)
- Exceptional rushing defense (2nd nationally)
- Offensive Concerns:
- 84th in points per game (23.8)
- 68th in yards per play (5.4)
- Quarterback consistency issues noted
Fresno State Bulldogs
- Offensive Potential:
- QB Mikey Keene returning after strong bowl performance
- Leading MW in attendance (39,939 fans/game)
- Projected 7-5 record for 2024 season
- Program Stability:
- Health concerns around Coach Tedford
- Strong home field advantage
- B+ grade for 2023 season performance
Key Factors to Watch
- Quarterback Play
- UCLA's potential starter Ethan Garbers showed promise in bowl game
- Fresno State's Mikey Keene provides stability
- Both teams' offensive success heavily dependent on QB performance
- Coaching Impact
- Jeff Tedford's health status for Fresno State
- UCLA's adjustment to new Big Ten schedule leading up to game
- Strategic matchup between defensive-minded UCLA and Fresno State's offense
- Environmental Factors
- Home field advantage for Fresno State
- Late November timing could affect performance
- Travel considerations for UCLA
- Recent Momentum
- Both teams ended 2023 with bowl victories
- UCLA's defensive consistency vs. Fresno State's offensive potential
- Impact of respective conference schedules leading up to matchup
Prediction
Based on comprehensive analysis, UCLA holds a slight edge due to their elite defense and proven ability to win tough games. However, Fresno State's home field advantage and offensive capabilities make this a close matchup. Predicting UCLA to win with 55% probability, Fresno State 45% probability.
UCLA vs Fresno State Winner
UCLA:55.0%
Fresno State:45.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://nevadasportsnet.com/news/reporters/grading-every-mountain-west-football-teams-2023-season
- https://www.dailynews.com/2024/01/10/ucla-football-breakdown-how-the-bruins-look-at-the-skill-positions/
- https://sports.yahoo.com/saturday-bowl-tracker-ucla-uses-big-third-quarter-to-beat-boise-state-in-la-bowl-192833960.html
- https://247sports.com/college/ucla/Article/ucla-statistical-rankings-pac-12-usc-washington-oregon-big-ten-223943328/