← Back to Events
Michigan vs. Ohio State
In the upcoming CFB game, scheduled for November 30 at 12:00PM ET: If the Michigan win, the market will resolve to “Michigan”. If the Ohio State win, the market will resolve to “Ohio State”. If the game is not completed by December 7, 2024 (11:59 PM ET) or it ends in a tie, the market will resolve 50-50.
Event Details
Total Volume: $2.7K
24h Volume: $2.6K
Total Liquidity: $16.7K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 11/30/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The historic rivalry between Michigan and Ohio State enters a new chapter in 2024 under significantly different circumstances from their 2023 matchup. Michigan enters as the defending national champions but faces challenges with key personnel changes, including new head coach Sherrone Moore and quarterback transitions. Ohio State seeks redemption after three straight losses in this rivalry and has shown defensive improvements under their coordinator.
This matchup carries significant implications for both teams' playoff hopes and conference championship aspirations. Recent history, coaching changes, and roster turnover create an intriguing dynamic that makes this a particularly challenging game to predict nearly a year in advance.
Analysis
Historical Context
- Michigan has won the last three meetings (2021-2023)
- 2023 game ended 30-24 in Michigan's favor
- Rivalry historically close with momentum swings between programs
Key Personnel Changes
Michigan
- New head coach Sherrone Moore replacing Jim Harbaugh
- Lost QB J.J. McCarthy and RB Blake Corum to NFL
- Alex Orji likely taking over at quarterback
- Strong defensive returnees with 5 starters back
Ohio State
- Ryan Day under pressure after recent losses to Michigan
- Marvin Harrison Jr. likely departed for NFL
- Defensive improvements noted in 2023
- Questions at quarterback position
Factors to Watch
-
Quarterback Development
- Alex Orji's progression at Michigan
- Ohio State's QB situation resolution
- Impact on offensive strategies
-
Coaching Adjustments
- Moore's first full season as head coach
- Ryan Day's response to previous losses
- New defensive coordinator Martindale's impact at Michigan
-
Program Momentum
- Michigan's confidence as defending champions
- Ohio State's motivation after recent losses
- Early season performance indicators
Recent Developments
- Michigan's strong defensive recruiting
- Ohio State's offensive adjustments
- Both teams rebuilding key skill positions
Prediction
Based on available information, this projects as a closely contested game with slight advantages to Michigan due to program momentum and home field advantage. Michigan has a 55% probability of victory, while Ohio State has a 45% chance. Key uncertainties around quarterback play and coaching transitions reduce confidence in this prediction.
Michigan vs Ohio State Winner
Michigan:55.0%
Ohio State:45.0%
Confidence: 6/10
Reasoning Score: 7/10
Sources
- https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/michigan-football-2024-practice-news-camp-storylines-qb-depth-chart-predictions-from-wolverines-insiders/
- https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/2023/11/25/wolverines-outlast-buckeyes-to-stay-undefeated-return-to-big-ten-title-game/71703252007/
- https://www.dispatch.com/story/sports/college/football/2023/11/26/analysis-ohio-states-latest-loss-to-michigan-cuts-deep/71655225007/
- https://theathletic.com/5078294/2023/11/24/michigan-ohio-state-preview-prediction/