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New Mexico vs. Hawai'i
In the upcoming CFB game, scheduled for November 30 at 11:00PM ET: If the New Mexico win, the market will resolve to “New Mexico”. If the Hawai'i win, the market will resolve to “Hawai'i”. If the game is not completed by December 7, 2024 (11:59 PM ET) or it ends in a tie, the market will resolve 50-50.
Event Details
Total Volume: $54
24h Volume: $2
Total Liquidity: $7.9K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/1/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The November 30, 2024 college football game between New Mexico and Hawaii presents an intriguing matchup between two Mountain West Conference teams with contrasting trajectories. Hawaii showed improvement in 2023, finishing with a 5-7 record and demonstrating strong late-season form under coach Timmy Chang. New Mexico, meanwhile, has undergone significant changes including hiring new head coach Bronco Mendenhall.
Based on recent performance metrics and team development, this game represents a critical matchup for both programs. Hawaii's defensive improvements and home field advantage could prove decisive, while New Mexico's coaching transition and historical struggles present significant challenges for the visiting team.
Analysis
Team Analysis
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
- Finished 2023 with 5-7 record (3-5 in MWC)
- Showed marked improvement under coach Timmy Chang
- Strong late-season performance in 2023, winning 3 of final 4 games
- Notable defensive strengths, ranking first in Mountain West for fewest yards/points allowed
- Demonstrated ability to compete with stronger opponents
New Mexico Lobos
- Struggled in 2023 with 3-9 record (1-6 in MWC)
- New head coach Bronco Mendenhall brings experience but faces rebuilding challenges
- Historical difficulties in program development
- Significant roster turnover through transfer portal
Key Factors to Watch
- Coaching Impact
- Hawaii's coaching stability under Chang vs New Mexico's transition period
- Mendenhall's proven track record but historical first-year challenges
- Home Field Advantage
- Hawaii's unique home environment and travel impacts
- Historical performance trends in home games
- Team Momentum
- Hawaii's demonstrated improvement trajectory
- New Mexico's rebuilding phase under new leadership
- Personnel Development
- Impact of transfer portal movements
- Team cohesion and system familiarity
Recent Developments
- Hawaii's defensive improvements through 2023
- New Mexico's coaching transition and roster changes
- Both teams' early 2024 season performance will be crucial indicators
Prediction
Based on comprehensive analysis, Hawaii should be favored to win this matchup. The combination of home field advantage, coaching stability, and demonstrated improvement trajectory suggests approximately 65% probability of a Hawaii victory. New Mexico's chances are estimated at 35%, reflecting the challenges of their coaching transition and historical performance issues.
Hawaii vs New Mexico Winner
Hawaii:65.0%
New Mexico:35.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://nevadasportsnet.com/news/reporters/grading-every-mountain-west-football-teams-2023-season
- https://247sports.com/college/ucla/article/2024-ucla-football-offseason-opponent-primer-hawaii-232723884/
- https://nevadasportsnet.com/newsletter-daily/way-too-early-predicted-win-totals-for-every-mountain-west-football-team-in-2024