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Washington vs. Oregon
In the upcoming CFB game, scheduled for November 30 at 12:00AM ET: If the Washington win, the market will resolve to “Washington”. If the Oregon win, the market will resolve to “Oregon”. If the game is not completed by December 7, 2024 (11:59 PM ET) or it ends in a tie, the market will resolve 50-50.
Event Details
Total Volume: $549
24h Volume: $530
Total Liquidity: $10.6K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 11/30/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The Pac-12 Championship game features a highly anticipated rematch between #3 Washington (12-0) and #5 Oregon (11-1). Oregon enters as a 9.5-point favorite despite losing their earlier matchup this season when Washington won 36-33. The game has massive implications for both teams' College Football Playoff hopes, with the winner likely securing a spot.
This matchup features two elite quarterbacks - Washington's Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon's Bo Nix. While Washington remains undefeated, recent offensive struggles and inefficiencies in their running game raise concerns. Meanwhile, Oregon has shown tremendous defensive improvement, particularly against the run, and enters with significant momentum after dominating recent opponents.
Analysis
Team Analysis
Washington Huskies (12-0)
- Undefeated season including previous win over Oregon
- Recent offensive struggles highlighted by poor rushing efficiency
- Key receiver Jalen McMillan dealing with knee injury
- Narrow wins in recent games showing vulnerability
Oregon Ducks (11-1)
- Elite run defense allowing only 95.1 yards per game
- Strong momentum after dominant wins
- Bo Nix playing at Heisman Trophy caliber level
- Only loss was close game to Washington earlier this season
Key Factors
Offensive Matchups
- Washington's passing attack vs Oregon's improved defense
- Oregon's balanced offense vs Washington's defense
- Impact of weather conditions on offensive execution
- Red zone efficiency will be crucial
Defensive Considerations
- Oregon's elite run defense could force Washington to be one-dimensional
- Washington's defense has shown ability to make crucial stops
- Turnover battle likely to be decisive
External Factors
- Neutral site at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas
- High stakes with CFP implications
- Revenge factor for Oregon after earlier loss
Recent Developments
- Oregon moved up to #5 in rankings
- Washington showing offensive inefficiency in recent games
- Oregon's defense holding opponents to historically low rushing totals
- Betting lines favor Oregon by 9.5 points
Prediction
Based on recent performance trends, defensive improvements, and momentum, Oregon is likely to win this matchup. While Washington has shown remarkable resilience in close games, Oregon's balanced attack and elite run defense should prove decisive. Predict Oregon to win with 65% probability, Washington 35% probability.
Who will win the Pac-12 Championship between Washington and Oregon?
Oregon:65.0%
Washington:35.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2023/11/oregon-football-favored-by-more-than-a-touchdown-against-washington-in-pac-12-championship-game.html
- https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/oregon-vs-washington-odds-line-spread-2023-pac-12-championship-game-picks-predictions-by-proven-model/
- https://www.onmontlake.com/p/washingtons-offense-looks-to-improve
- https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2023/11/is-this-the-best-run-defense-in-oregon-football-history-ducks-trending-towards-milestone-season.html