← Back to Events
Champions League Winner
This is a market on predicting the winner of the UEFA Champions League tournament.
Event Details
Total Volume: $506.2M
24h Volume: $1.9M
Total Liquidity: $7.5M
Markets: 36
Event Ends: 5/25/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The 2023-24 UEFA Champions League is entering its knockout stages, with the round of 16 teams now determined. Based on the search results and current market conditions, there are clear tiers of favorites emerging - with Manchester City, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Arsenal, and Bayern Munich seen as the leading contenders, each with 10-15% probability of winning according to markets.
The group stage results have provided important signals about team form and momentum. Notable qualifiers include Barcelona topping their group after a 2-1 comeback win against Porto, Borussia Dortmund winning their challenging group, and Atlético Madrid showing strong form. Meanwhile, some traditional powerhouses like Manchester United failed to advance, reshaping the competitive landscape for the knockout rounds.
Analysis
Current Tournament Status
- Group stage completed with 16 teams advancing to knockout rounds
- Group winners:
- Bayern Munich
- Arsenal
- Real Madrid
- Real Sociedad
- Atlético Madrid
- Borussia Dortmund
- Manchester City
- Barcelona
Tier Analysis
Top Tier (>10% probability)
- Manchester City (13.0%)
- Defending champions
- Strong group stage performance
- Proven Champions League pedigree
- Liverpool (14.7%)
- Not currently in Champions League
- Market odds appear incorrect
- Arsenal/Real Madrid/Barcelona (12.5% each)
- All topped their groups
- Historical success in competition
- Current strong domestic form
Second Tier (2-10%)
- Bayern Munich (10.5%)
- Traditional powerhouse
- Group stage winners
- Some domestic inconsistency
- Borussia Dortmund (2.1%)
- Topped difficult group
- Historically strong in Europe
- Questions about consistency
Lower Tiers (<2%)
- Most other qualified teams
- Limited realistic chance of winning
- Could cause upsets in individual matches
- Lack depth for full tournament run
Key Factors to Watch
- Draw Impact
- Round of 16 draw on December 18 will significantly impact paths
- Group winners avoid each other
- Some potentially difficult matchups possible
- Form and Momentum
- Barcelona showing renewed European strength
- Manchester City maintaining high standards
- Real Madrid's consistent Champions League performance
- Squad Depth
- Injury situations for key players
- Managing domestic/European schedule
- January transfer window impacts
Recent Developments
- Barcelona secured knockout qualification for first time in 3 years
- Dortmund topped difficult group including PSG, Milan
- Atlético Madrid showing strong form under Simeone
Prediction
Based on the available evidence, Manchester City remains the most likely winner (13-15% probability), followed by Arsenal, Real Madrid, and Barcelona in a tight group (11-13% each). Bayern Munich represents good value at current odds (10.5%). Most other teams have minimal realistic chance of winning the tournament.
Manchester City
Arsenal
Real Madrid
Barcelona
Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund
All others
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- - https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/0287-198eca20b462-828fa062f9df-1000--champions-league-group-stage-who-made-it-through-to-the-r/
- - https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/nov/28/champions-league-barcelona-comeback-win-seals-knockout-place
- - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/champions-league/scores-fixtures