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Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China between July 14 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $1.3M
24h Volume: $10.9K
Total Liquidity: $76.0K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The question of whether China will unban Bitcoin in 2024 sits at the intersection of geopolitics, technological innovation, and financial regulation. China's stance on cryptocurrencies has been consistently restrictive since implementing comprehensive bans in 2021, though recent developments in Hong Kong and statements from former officials have sparked discussion about potential policy shifts.
The evidence strongly suggests that China is unlikely to reverse its Bitcoin ban in 2024. While the country is actively embracing blockchain technology and developing its digital yuan (CBDC), recent regulatory actions and official statements continue to emphasize control and risk prevention rather than openness to decentralized cryptocurrencies. The narrow time window (July-December 2024) and requirement for an explicit government announcement further reduce the likelihood of a positive outcome.
Analysis
Economic and Regulatory Background
Current Chinese Policy Stance
- Complete ban on cryptocurrency trading and mining implemented in 2021
- Active development of state-controlled digital yuan (CBDC)
- Recent strengthening of anti-money laundering regulations targeting crypto risks
- Focus on blockchain technology development separate from cryptocurrencies
Global Context
- Growing crypto adoption in other jurisdictions
- Hong Kong's move toward regulated crypto markets
- U.S. approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs
- International pressure for standardized crypto regulations
Analysis of Potential Outcomes
Scenario 1: Maintaining Ban (97.1% Probability)
- Aligns with current regulatory trajectory
- Supported by recent anti-money laundering legislation
- Consistent with China's emphasis on centralized control
- Reinforced by new regulations on non-bank payment institutions
Scenario 2: Unbanning Bitcoin (2.9% Probability)
- Would require dramatic policy reversal
- Limited by narrow timeframe (July-December 2024)
- Would need explicit government announcement
- Faces significant institutional resistance
Key Factors to Watch
Domestic Indicators
- Digital yuan development progress
- Statements from current officials (not just former)
- New regulatory frameworks
- Changes in enforcement patterns
External Catalysts
- Hong Kong's crypto market performance
- U.S.-China relations
- Global crypto market stability
- Regional competitive pressures
Recent Developments
- Strengthened anti-money laundering regulations targeting crypto
- Enhanced oversight of non-bank payment institutions
- Continued investment in blockchain technology
- Former finance official's calls for crypto research
Prediction
Based on comprehensive analysis of available evidence, I predict with high confidence (9/10) that China will NOT unban Bitcoin in 2024. The combination of recent regulatory actions, institutional momentum, and political priorities makes a policy reversal extremely unlikely within the specified timeframe. I assess a 98% probability of continued prohibition and 2% probability of an unban announcement.
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024?
Yes:2.0%
No:98.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/202312/content_6920724.htm
- https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz/202109/t20210924_1297474.html
- https://www.scmp.com/tech/blockchain/article/3280517/former-chinese-finance-official-urges-crypto-research-us-softens-stance
- https://www.scmp.com/tech/blockchain/article/3286069/trumps-crypto-support-may-see-china-restore-digital-asset-market-hashkey-head-says
- https://www.miit.gov.cn/zwgk/jytafwgk/art/2023/art_7eba1016ef5a4d98979b0167f38e4b35.html