The Croatian presidential election landscape is currently dominated by the controversial figure of incumbent President Zoran Milanović, who has created significant political tension by announcing his intention to run for Prime Minister while serving as President - a move deemed unconstitutional. The situation has been further complicated by early parliamentary elections called for April 17, 2024. The markets strongly favor Milanović to retain the presidency, with over 90% probability, while other candidates like Dragan Primorac show minimal chances. This reflects both Milanović's incumbent advantage and his recent heightened political profile, though his confrontational style and legal challenges could introduce volatility into these predictions.

Current Political Context

Constitutional Crisis

• President Milanović has created unprecedented tension by attempting to run for PM while serving as President
• Constitutional Court has ruled against this move, but Milanović has dismissed their authority
• This creates significant uncertainty about political stability and institutional integrity

Electoral Timeline

• Parliamentary elections scheduled for April 17, 2024
• Presidential election will follow later
• Timing creates complex dynamics between parliamentary and presidential races

Candidate Analysis

Zoran Milanović (91.0% market probability)

• Incumbent president with strong name recognition
• Employs populist tactics that have energized various voter blocs
• Benefits from:
  • Opposition to ruling HDZ party
  • Strong media presence
  • Ability to unite left-wing and disillusioned HDZ voters
• Risks:
  • Constitutional crisis could damage legitimacy
  • Confrontational style may alienate moderate voters

Dragan Primorac (6.5% market probability)

• Limited visibility in current political landscape
• Lacks strong party infrastructure support
• Market pricing suggests minimal chance of victory

Other Candidates (<2% combined probability)

• Marija Selak Raspudić, Ivana Kekin show minimal market support
• Limited campaign infrastructure and national recognition
• Current political environment favors established figures

Key Factors to Watch

1. Constitutional Court Decisions

• Further rulings could impact Milanović's political standing
• Potential for legal challenges to candidacy

2. Parliamentary Election Results

• April 17 results will shape political landscape
• Could strengthen or weaken Milanović's position

3. Media Environment

• New media laws could affect campaign coverage
• Press freedom concerns may impact public discourse

4. Voter Sentiment

• Reaction to constitutional crisis
• Economic conditions and EU relations
• Impact of populist messaging