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Deshaun Watson suspended for personal misconduct?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Deshaun Watson is suspended for any game of the 2024-2025 NFL regular season due to personal misconduct. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A suspension for personal misconduct by the NFL, the Cleveland Browns, or the placement of Watson on the Commissioner’s Exempt List such that he misses a game will all qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NFL however or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $40.3K
24h Volume: $4
Total Liquidity: $2.4K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 1/6/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market focuses on whether Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson will be suspended for personal misconduct during the 2024-2025 NFL regular season. Watson has a complex history with the NFL's personal conduct policy, having previously served an 11-game suspension in 2022 related to multiple allegations of sexual misconduct.
Recent developments show that Watson settled a new civil lawsuit in October 2023 alleging sexual assault, which prompted an NFL review. While the NFL confirmed they are still investigating despite the settlement, the confidential nature of the agreement and lack of formal charges make immediate disciplinary action less likely. Additionally, Watson's current focus appears to be on recovery from season-ending injuries rather than conduct issues.
Analysis
Recent Developments
- Watson settled a civil lawsuit in October 2023 alleging sexual assault
- NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell confirmed ongoing review of the case
- Watson suffered season-ending injuries during the 2023 season
- No new allegations or investigations have emerged since the settlement
Analysis of Potential Outcomes
Suspension (5% Market Probability)
Factors supporting suspension:
- History of previous conduct violations and suspension
- NFL's ongoing investigation of recent settlement
- League's demonstrated willingness to enforce conduct policy
Factors against suspension:
- Confidential settlement limits NFL's ability to gather evidence
- No formal charges or new allegations
- Previous agreement with NFL protecting against similar past conduct
- Time elapsed since incidents
No Suspension (95% Market Probability)
Supporting factors:
- Lack of new allegations since settlement
- Confidentiality agreement limiting investigation
- Focus on injury recovery rather than conduct issues
- NFL's statement not considering exempt list placement
- Time passed since original incidents
Key Factors to Watch
- Any new allegations or legal actions
- NFL investigation findings
- Public statements from league officials
- Watson's behavior during rehabilitation
- Browns organizational support
Risk Factors
- Potential emergence of new allegations
- Changes in NFL personal conduct policy
- Public pressure or media scrutiny
- Results of ongoing NFL review
Prediction
Based on available evidence and market analysis, I agree with the current market sentiment suggesting a low probability of suspension. The combination of the confidential settlement, lack of new allegations, and previous NFL agreements makes suspension unlikely. I estimate a 90% probability of no suspension and 10% probability of suspension, slightly more conservative than current market prices.
Deshaun Watson suspended for personal misconduct?
Yes:10.0%
No:90.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2024/10/deshaun-watson-settles-civil-suit-filed-against-him-last-month-accusing-him-of-sexual-assault.html
- https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2024/10/nfl-still-reviewing-deshaun-watsons-case-even-though-he-settled-with-the-plaintiff-roger-goodell-says.html
- https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/latest-lawsuit-against-deshaun-watson-is-resolved