Ecuador Presidential Election

Ecuador faces a critical presidential election in 2025 amid unprecedented security challenges and political turbulence. Current President Daniel Noboa, who took office in November 2023, enjoys historically high approval ratings (81.4%) but faces significant challenges including rampant organized crime and economic instability. The upcoming April 2024 referendum on security measures will likely impact the electoral landscape. The political situation is complex, with Noboa's administration attempting to address a severe security crisis through militarized responses while maintaining coalition support in the legislature. His success in handling these challenges, particularly the "internal armed conflict" with criminal organizations, will significantly influence the 2025 election dynamics.

Current Political Landscape

• President Daniel Noboa holds highest approval rating (81.4%) of any president since 1979
• Governing through coalition with Revolución Ciudadana (RC)
• Declared "internal armed conflict" to combat organized crime
• Public optimism increased from 40.7% (Nov 2023) to 52.3% (Feb 2024)

Key Challenges

Security Crisis

• Homicide rates increased from 13.7/100,000 (2021) to ~45/100,000 (2023)
• Organized crime groups gaining power
• High-profile political violence, including assassination of candidate Villavicencio
• Upcoming April 2024 referendum on security measures

Economic Issues

• High inflation concerns
• Dependence on international financial support
• Need for economic reforms
• Rising poverty and inequality

Factors That Could Impact 2025 Election

1. Security Referendum Results

• Success/failure of April 2024 security measures
• Public response to militarized approach
• Actual crime reduction metrics

2. Economic Performance

• International loan negotiations
• Oil prices and production
• Employment rates
• Inflation control

3. Coalition Stability

• Relations with RC party
• Legislative support for reforms
• Vice President tensions

4. International Relations

• U.S. security cooperation
• Relations with regional partners
• Foreign investment climate

Recent Developments

• Strong public support (60.3%) for upcoming security referendum
• Implementation of new security measures
• Coalition-building efforts in legislature
• International security partnerships