The prediction market focuses on whether Elon Musk will ban Apple devices at his companies by December 31, 2024. This question has gained attention following increased tensions between Musk and Apple, particularly after Apple's decision to pause advertising on X (formerly Twitter) and Musk's subsequent public criticism of the company. Based on the available evidence, while Musk has shown antagonism toward Apple through public statements, there are several factors that make a complete ban on Apple devices unlikely. Most notably, Musk himself continues to use Apple products, and implementing such a ban would face significant practical challenges across his companies. The market currently shows a strong consensus toward "No" at 95.7%, which appears well-aligned with the available evidence.

Background and Context

Current Situation

• Elon Musk has engaged in public criticism of Apple, particularly regarding:
  • Apple's 30% App Store fees
  • Apple's decision to pause advertising on X
  • Perceived threats to remove X from the App Store
• Notable that despite tensions, Musk continues to use Apple products himself

Corporate Environment

• Musk's companies (Tesla, SpaceX, X) rely heavily on mobile technology
• Implementing a device ban would face significant operational challenges
• No precedent for such a broad technology restriction at major companies

Analysis of Outcomes

Outcome: Ban Implemented (4.3%)

Supporting Factors:

• Musk's history of impulsive decision-making
• Ongoing tensions with Apple
• Previous threats to create alternative phone

Challenging Factors:

• Practical difficulties of implementation
• Potential negative impact on employee productivity
• Cost of replacing existing devices
• Legal and HR complications

Outcome: No Ban (95.7%)

Supporting Factors:

• Musk's continued personal use of Apple products
• Operational impracticality
• Lack of viable alternatives
• No indication of policy development
• Potential negative impact on recruitment and retention

Key Factors to Watch

1. Corporate Relationships

• Further developments in Apple-X advertising relationship
• Public statements from Musk about Apple
• Changes in App Store policies affecting X

2. Technology Development

• Progress on any Tesla/X alternative devices
• Changes in mobile device market

3. Policy Signals

• Internal communications about device policies
• HR policy updates at Musk's companies

Recent Developments

• Musk's recent "Go f--- yourself" comment to advertisers including Apple
• Continued use of iPhone by Musk
• No indication of policy development toward device restrictions