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Eric Adams out as NYC mayor before 2025?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Adams announces that he will resign from his position as Mayor of New York City, or otherwise ceases to be Mayor for any length of time, between September 11, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New York or official statements by Eric Adams or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Event Details
Total Volume: $435.1K
24h Volume: $37
Total Liquidity: $19.5K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market focuses on whether Eric Adams will cease to be NYC mayor before 2025, with circumstances suggesting increasing political pressure on his administration. Adams faces multiple challenges, including an ongoing FBI investigation into his campaign finances, declining approval ratings, and emerging potential challengers for the 2025 election.
Recent developments paint a picture of mounting challenges for Adams, with the FBI seizing his electronic devices and reports of potential challengers like Andrew Cuomo considering runs for mayor. However, Adams has maintained his stance on continuing his duties and shows no immediate signs of stepping down, despite these pressures. The market currently prices a low probability of his departure before 2025, though several key risk factors could shift this outlook.
Analysis
Current Political Environment
Adams' Position
- Currently serving as NYC Mayor with term running through 2025
- Facing FBI investigation into campaign finances and Turkish government connections
- Approval ratings at historic lows according to Quinnipiac polls
- Recently surrendered electronic devices to federal authorities
- Maintaining public stance of "fully cooperating" while continuing mayoral duties
Key Risk Factors
Legal Risks
- Ongoing FBI investigation into campaign financing
- Potential implications of seized electronic devices
- Risk of indictment or escalating legal troubles
Political Pressure
- Growing list of potential 2025 challengers
- Former Governor Andrew Cuomo considering mayoral run
- State Senators Jessica Ramos and Zellnor Myrie emerging as potential opponents
- Progressive coalitions organizing opposition
Administrative Challenges
- Budget cuts across city agencies
- Controversies over handling of migrant crisis
- Public safety concerns and NYPD-related disputes
- Conflicts with City Council over vetoed bills
Recent Developments
- FBI investigation intensification with device seizures
- Emergence of credible challengers for 2025
- State of the City address revealing limited new initiatives
- Ongoing disputes with City Council over key legislation
Outcome Analysis
Scenario 1: Early Departure (4.3% Current Market Price)
Supporting Factors:
- Escalating FBI investigation
- Mounting political pressure
- Declining public approval
- Potential indictment risk
Constraints:
- Adams' demonstrated resilience
- Lack of immediate resignation pressure
- No direct evidence of wrongdoing yet
Scenario 2: Continues Through 2024 (95.7% Current Market Price)
Supporting Factors:
- Strong incumbent position
- No immediate legal consequences
- Active engagement in governance
- Public stance on continuing duties
Key Factors to Watch
- FBI Investigation developments
- Public approval ratings trends
- Emergence of strong challengers
- Legal developments or announcements
- Budget and administrative crisis management
Prediction
Based on available evidence, I assess a slightly higher probability of early departure than the current market price suggests, though still favoring continuation through 2024. I estimate an 88% chance Adams remains mayor through 2024, with a 12% chance of early departure due to legal or political pressure. The key risk factors are the FBI investigation and potential indictment, which could force resignation if they escalate significantly.
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor before 2025?
Yes:12.0%
No:88.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://www.amny.com/politics/possible-2025-challengers-emerge-as-mayor-adams-continues-to-be-dogged-by-controversies/
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-30/nyc-mayor-s-woes-are-so-bad-even-andrew-cuomo-is-eyeing-a-run
- https://hellgatenyc.com/eric-adams-state-of-the-city-2024
- https://www.cityandstateny.com/opinion/2023/11/opinion-mayoral-primary-challenge-we-need/391991/
- https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2023/11/adams-admin-wont-say-whether-other-officials-devices-were-seized/392024/