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Ethena crash in 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” Ethena USDe is below 90 cents for a period of 12 hours or more in 2024. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." CoinGecko 30 minute candles for Ethena USDe will be used, for candles between April 1 and December 31, 2024 in the ET timezone. For this market to resolve to "Yes" all candles in the 12 hour period must have a final “High” price below 0.90000 (i.e. 0.89999 or lower). A 12h period of USDe below 90 cents that starts on the last day will count (e.g. December 31, 2024, 22:00 ET to January 1, 2024, 10:00 ET). The resolution source for this market is https://www.coingecko.com/, specifically the “High” prices currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethena-usde with “30m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. To see the “High” prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value after “H” on the displayed chart. Please note that this market is about the price according to CoinGecko USDe. If CoinGecko stops having the necessary USDe information to resolve this market, a consensus of credible sources for whether USDe was below 90 cents for 12h+ may be used to resolve this market.

Event Details

Total Volume: $122.8K
24h Volume: $479
Total Liquidity: $31.6K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market focuses on whether Ethena's USDe stablecoin will experience a crash (defined as trading below $0.90 for 12+ consecutive hours) during 2024. Based on available data, Ethena has shown strong growth and stability since its launch, with USDe supply reaching $120M+ and becoming a top 15 stablecoin. The project has demonstrated robust fundamentals through high yields (up to 45% annualized) and significant revenue generation. Market sentiment appears highly confident that USDe will maintain its peg throughout 2024, with current odds showing only a 2.9% chance of a crash. This confidence seems well-supported by Ethena's conservative risk management, growing institutional adoption, and status as one of crypto's highest-earning applications. However, broader macro risks and the inherent volatility of crypto markets warrant continued monitoring.

Analysis

Economic Background

Federal Reserve Context

  • Fed projected to begin rate cuts in 2024
  • Inflation showing sustained moderation
  • Labor market remains relatively strong
  • Financial conditions have eased in recent months

Crypto Market Environment

  • Bitcoin halving expected in April 2024
  • Growing institutional adoption
  • Regulatory clarity improving
  • Stablecoin market maturing

Outcome Analysis

Scenario 1: No Crash (97.1% Current Probability)

Supporting Factors:

  • Strong fundamentals and revenue generation
  • Conservative risk management approach
  • Growing institutional adoption
  • High yields attracting liquidity
  • Top 15 stablecoin status achieved

Risks:

  • General crypto market volatility
  • Potential regulatory changes
  • Macro economic shocks
  • Technical/smart contract risks

Scenario 2: Crash Occurs (2.9% Current Probability)

Potential Triggers:

  • Severe market stress event
  • Critical technical failure
  • Regulatory crackdown
  • Loss of institutional confidence
  • Broader stablecoin market contagion

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Market Metrics
  • ETH funding rates
  • stETH yield
  • USDe supply growth
  • Trading volume trends
  1. External Factors
  • Regulatory developments
  • Fed policy changes
  • Competitor dynamics
  • Market volatility events
  1. Project Development
  • Technical upgrades
  • Partnership announcements
  • Risk management updates
  • Team expansion

Recent Developments

  • Achieved $120M+ USDe supply
  • Reported as highest earning crypto application
  • Yields reaching 45% annualized
  • Continued institutional adoption

Prediction

Based on comprehensive analysis, I assess a 95% probability that Ethena's USDe will maintain its peg above $0.90 throughout 2024. While tail risks exist, the project's strong fundamentals, conservative approach, and growing institutional adoption provide significant stability. I assign a 5% probability to a crash scenario, slightly higher than market odds due to inherent crypto market risks.

Ethena crash in 2024?

Yes:5.0%
No:95.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 7/10

Sources

Market Options

Ethena crash in 2024?

Yes
2.4%
No
97.7%
Liquidity: $31.6K
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