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Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024?

This is a market on whether the market capitalization of Ethena's $USDe will surpass that of Circle's $USDC within this market's timeframe, according to CoinGecko. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethena-usde/historical_data and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data. This market's timeframe spans from April 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024 (inclusive). If, according to the resolution source, $USDe has a greater market cap than $USDC for any day within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the market cap of $USDe is equal to or lower than that of $USDC for every day within this market's timeframe, then this market will resolve to “No”. This market may only resolve to "No" once the December 31 market cap data is available. Note that only the historical data numbers will be used for the comparison of the market caps. If the URLs linking to CoinGecko's Historical Data change at any point, the new URLs will be used instead of the ones initially listed. If the resolution data for any of the relevant days remains unavailable through January 1, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, CoinMarketCap historical data will be used instead.

Event Details

Total Volume: $118.9K
24h Volume: $43
Total Liquidity: $37.9K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market is evaluating whether Ethena's USDe stablecoin will surpass USDC's market capitalization by the end of 2024. This represents a significant challenge, as USDC is one of the most established stablecoins with major institutional backing and integration across the crypto ecosystem. Recent developments show Ethena gaining impressive early traction, with rapid growth in TVL to over $833M and becoming one of the highest revenue-generating protocols in crypto. However, USDC maintains substantial advantages through its regulatory compliance, banking partnerships, and broad market adoption. The market currently assigns a very low probability to USDe flipping USDC within the next month, which appears well-reasoned given the magnitude of the task and limited time remaining in 2024.

Analysis

Economic Background

  • The crypto market in 2024 has seen significant growth, with Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs above $90,000
  • Stablecoin usage is expanding rapidly, with VanEck predicting total market cap to exceed $200B
  • Institutional adoption of crypto continues to increase, particularly following spot Bitcoin ETF approvals

Analysis of Outcomes

Scenario 1: USDe Flips USDC (1.5% Probability)

Requirements:

  • Extraordinary growth in USDe adoption
  • Major setback or decline in USDC usage
  • Continued high yields attracting massive capital inflows

Key Challenges:

  • Very limited time remaining in 2024
  • USDC's established infrastructure and partnerships
  • Regulatory hurdles for rapid expansion

Scenario 2: USDC Maintains Lead (98.6% Probability)

Supporting Factors:

  • Strong institutional backing (Circle, Coinbase, Visa)
  • Multi-chain presence across 15 networks
  • Regulatory clarity and compliance
  • Established banking relationships

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Adoption Metrics
  • USDe total value locked (TVL)
  • Transaction volumes
  • Number of unique users
  1. Yield Dynamics
  • Sustainability of USDe's high yields
  • Competitive responses from other protocols
  • Market conditions affecting funding rates
  1. Regulatory Environment
  • Any regulatory challenges to Ethena's model
  • Changes in stablecoin oversight
  • Banking partnerships and institutional adoption

Recent Developments

  • Ethena has raised $4M for treasury
  • TVL has grown to $833M
  • Integration with Bitget Wallet completed
  • Currently highest earning application in crypto
  • High yields (>68% annualized) driving adoption

Prediction

Based on comprehensive analysis, I agree with the market's assessment that USDe is highly unlikely to flip USDC's market cap by the end of 2024. While Ethena shows impressive growth and innovation, the combination of limited remaining time and USDC's substantial advantages make this an extremely challenging target. I estimate a 2% probability of USDe flipping USDC, slightly higher than the market but still reflecting the significant obstacles.

Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024?

Yes:2.0%
No:98.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10

Sources

Market Options

Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024?

Yes
1.7%
No
98.3%
Liquidity: $37.9K
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