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Europa League Winner
This is a market on predicting the winner of the 2024-25 UEFA Europa League competition.
Event Details
Total Volume: $7.3M
24h Volume: $4.4M
Total Liquidity: $365.6K
Markets: 23
Event Ends: 5/21/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The 2024-25 UEFA Europa League presents an intriguing prediction market scenario, with several strong contenders vying for the title. The competition will take place under UEFA's new format, which introduces significant changes to European football competitions starting in 2024-25, including expanded tournament sizes and new qualification pathways.
Based on the available market data and recent performances, Tottenham Hotspur (19%) and Manchester United (12.5%) emerge as the current favorites, though both face significant challenges. The market appears to be pricing in the strength of Premier League clubs while potentially undervaluing some experienced European competitors. Key factors include the new UEFA competition format, current form in domestic leagues, and the potential impact of Champions League dropdowns.
Analysis
Competition Context
New UEFA Format
- Starting 2024-25, UEFA competitions will feature a new 36-team league phase
- Additional qualification spots based on coefficient rankings
- Format changes may impact team strategies and resource allocation
Current Landscape
- Premier League teams currently favored by the market
- Several experienced European competitors showing value
- Impact of Champions League dropdowns could significantly alter competition strength
Team Analysis
Top Contenders (>10% probability)
Tottenham Hotspur (19%)
- Strong Premier League performance
- Solid financial backing for transfers
- Question marks over European experience
Manchester United (12.5%)
- Historic European pedigree
- Currently struggling in domestic form
- Significant squad investment needed
Mid-Tier Contenders (5-10%)
Athletic Bilbao (10%)
- Strong domestic form
- Limited European success historically
- Consistent squad development
Lazio (8.5%)
- Serie A experience
- Previous European campaigns
- Inconsistent recent form
Galatasaray (7.5%)
- Turkish league leaders
- Strong home advantage
- Question marks over squad depth
Key Factors to Watch
Transfer Window Impact
- January 2024 transfers could strengthen contenders
- Summer 2024 window crucial for squad building
- Financial Fair Play constraints may limit moves
Competition Format Effects
- New 36-team format introduces uncertainty
- Changed qualification paths may affect team quality
- Additional matches could impact squad rotation
External Factors
- Domestic league performance
- Champions League dropout quality
- Injury situations for key players
Prediction
Based on comprehensive analysis, I assess that the market is currently overvaluing Premier League teams while undervaluing experienced European competitors. Tottenham Hotspur's 19% probability appears slightly high given their lack of recent European success, while Athletic Bilbao (10%) and Lazio (8.5%) show value at current prices. I recommend:
- SELL Tottenham Hotspur at 19%
- BUY Athletic Bilbao at 10%
- BUY Lazio at 8.5%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League?
Yes:15.0%
No:85.0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League?
Yes:12.0%
No:88.0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League?
Yes:11.0%
No:89.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/028a-1a4c5f292492-f6d3a5ee82bd-1000--2024-25-league-phase-as-it-stands/
- https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/0287-198eca20b462-828fa062f9df-1000--champions-league-group-stage-who-made-it-through-to-the-r/
- https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/02/will-fifth-place-premier-league-qualify-champions-league