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Fantasy Football: Top QB 2024
Fantasy Football: Top QB 2024
Event Details
Total Volume: $885.7K
24h Volume: $162
Total Liquidity: $259.9K
Markets: 12
Event Ends: 1/6/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The fantasy football quarterback landscape for 2024 presents an intriguing mix of established stars and emerging talents. Based on the analyzed articles and current market conditions, Lamar Jackson has emerged as the frontrunner, with the market giving him a 60.5% chance of being the top fantasy QB in 2024. This reflects his dual-threat capabilities, consistent performance, and the Ravens' offensive system that maximizes his talents.
The market appears to be significantly undervaluing several proven performers like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, while potentially overvaluing Jackson's chances. Recent roster changes, offensive coordinator movements, and the emergence of young talents like C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love suggest the competition for top fantasy QB will be more open than current odds indicate.
Analysis
Current QB Landscape Analysis
Tier 1 Contenders (>10% Market Probability)
-
Lamar Jackson (60.5%):
- Strong 2023 performance with improved passing numbers
- Consistent rushing floor provides high weekly ceiling
- Ravens' offense remains built around his skillset
- Market may be overvaluing based on recency bias
-
Joe Burrow (11.0%):
- Coming off injury but historically efficient
- Elite receiving corps with Chase and Higgins
- Bengals' pass-heavy offense supports high ceiling
- Health concerns may be overly discounted in current odds
Tier 2 Contenders (2-10%)
-
Jalen Hurts (4.5%):
- Proven fantasy producer with rushing upside
- Eagles' strong offensive line and weapons
- Market significantly undervaluing based on 2023 performance
- System continuity supports continued success
-
Josh Allen (1.6%):
- Historical top fantasy producer
- Bills' offense remains pass-heavy
- Severely undervalued at current market price
- Dual-threat ability provides consistent floor
Key Factors to Watch
-
Offensive Coordinator Changes:
- Impact on scheme and playcalling
- Adaptation period for quarterbacks
- Historical success with new systems
-
Supporting Cast:
- Free agency movements
- Draft additions
- Offensive line stability
-
Health and Recovery:
- Burrow's return from injury
- Richardson's development
- Murray's continued recovery
-
Emerging Talents:
- Stroud's sophomore season potential
- Love's development in Green Bay
- Williams' rookie impact potential
Recent Developments
- Multiple teams facing QB decisions in 2024 draft
- Free agency movement affecting offensive weapons
- Increased emphasis on mobile quarterbacks
- Offensive scheme evolution across the league
Prediction
Based on comprehensive analysis, I predict Josh Allen (25%) and Jalen Hurts (20%) are significantly undervalued, while Lamar Jackson (30%) is overvalued at current market prices. Joe Burrow (15%) presents fair value, while the field (10%) accounts for emerging talents and surprises. Key differentiators will be offensive system stability, supporting cast quality, and health maintenance throughout the season.
Will Lamar Jackson be the top Fantasy Quarterback?
Yes:30.0%
No:70.0%
Will Josh Allen be the top Fantasy Quarterback?
Yes:25.0%
No:75.0%
Will Jalen Hurts be the top Fantasy Quarterback?
Yes:20.0%
No:80.0%
Will Joe Burrow be the top Fantasy Quarterback?
Yes:15.0%
No:85.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.fantasypros.com/2024/01/2024-fantasy-football-draft-rankings-superflex/
- https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy-football-today-early-2024-season-rankings-top-12-quarterbacks-from-the-fft-team/
- https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-2023-rankings-nfl-week-17-qb-rb-wr-te-defense-picks-advanced-model-projections/