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Game of the Year 2024

This is a market group over who will win Game of the Year for the 2024 Game Awards.

Event Details

Total Volume: $543.0K
24h Volume: $64.8K
Total Liquidity: $69.1K
Markets: 7
Event Ends: 12/12/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The 2024 Game Awards Game of the Year (GOTY) prediction presents a complex forecasting challenge, with multiple high-profile titles scheduled for release throughout 2024. Based on the comprehensive search results, several major releases like Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, Dragon's Dogma 2, and Hades II stand out as potential frontrunners. The landscape is particularly interesting given the strong showing of narrative-driven RPGs in recent years, with Baldur's Gate III winning GOTY 2023. The early 2024 release schedule is notably packed with anticipated titles, while the presence of established franchises and innovative newcomers creates a diverse competitive field.

Analysis

Game of the Year 2024 Analysis

Recent GOTY Context

  • Baldur's Gate III won GOTY 2023, setting a high bar for narrative RPGs
  • Other 2023 finalists included Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, Alan Wake II, and Spider-Man 2
  • Strong emphasis on storytelling and player agency in recent winners

Major 2024 Contenders

Early Year Releases

  • Final Fantasy VII Rebirth (Feb 29)

    • Highly anticipated sequel to successful FF7 Remake
    • Strong franchise pedigree
    • Early release gives time for player engagement
  • Dragon's Dogma 2 (March)

    • Sequel to cult classic
    • Potential for innovation in action-RPG space

Mid-Year Releases

  • Hades II (Q2 2024 Early Access)
    • Successor to critically acclaimed original
    • Early access model may impact award eligibility

Later Releases

  • Senua's Saga: Hellblade 2 (May 21)
    • Known for psychological narrative depth
    • Technical showcase potential

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Release Timing

    • Early year releases have more time to build momentum
    • Late releases need immediate impact
  2. Critical Reception

    • Review scores and critical consensus
    • Player reception and community engagement
  3. Technical Innovation

    • New gameplay mechanics
    • Visual and artistic achievements
  4. Market Performance

    • Sales numbers
    • Streaming presence and cultural impact

Prediction

Based on the available information, Final Fantasy VII Rebirth appears to be the strongest contender (35% probability), followed by Dragon's Dogma 2 (20%) and Hades II (15%). The remaining 30% is distributed among other releases and potential surprise entries. This assessment considers release timing, franchise strength, and historical award patterns.

Game of the Year 2024

Final Fantasy VII Rebirth:35.0%
Dragon's Dogma 2:20.0%
Hades II:15.0%
Senua's Saga: Hellblade 2:10.0%
Other:20.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Market Options

Will 'Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth' win Game of the Year?

Yes
17.0%
No
83.0%
Liquidity: $69.1K
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Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year?

Yes
27.5%
No
72.5%
Liquidity: $69.1K
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Will another game win Game of the Year?

Yes
0.5%
No
99.5%
Liquidity: $69.1K
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Will 'Metaphor: ReFantazio' win Game of the Year?

Yes
5.9%
No
94.0%
Liquidity: $69.1K
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Will 'Balatro' win Game of the Year?

Yes
2.9%
No
97.2%
Liquidity: $69.1K
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Will 'Astro Bot' win Game of the Year?

Yes
40.5%
No
59.5%
Liquidity: $69.1K
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Will 'Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree' win Game of the Year?

Yes
7.6%
No
92.4%
Liquidity: $69.1K
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