The December 2024 Ghana Presidential Election represents a critical juncture in the country's political landscape, with incumbent President Nana Akufo-Addo term-limited and unable to run again. The race primarily features three major candidates: former President John Mahama (NDC), current Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia (NPP), and emerging candidates like Nana Kwame Bediako (New Force Movement) and Alan Kyerematen (Butterfly Movement). Current polling and sentiment analysis strongly favor John Mahama, with the NDC showing significant advantages in both traditional and social media engagement. The economic crisis under the current NPP administration has created substantial headwinds for Bawumia's campaign, while Mahama's experience as a former president and the historical pattern of power alternating between the NPP and NDC suggest a likely NDC victory.

Economic Context

• Ghana is experiencing its worst economic crisis in a generation
• Current administration forced to seek $3B IMF loan
• High inflation and currency depreciation affecting voter sentiment
• Economic challenges creating significant disadvantage for NPP/Bawumia campaign

Candidate Analysis

John Mahama (NDC) - 80.5% Market Price

• Leading in polls with 51.1% support (Global Info Analytics)
• Former president with strong name recognition
• Benefiting from economic discontent with current administration
• Strong social media presence with 18M+ reach
• Campaign message "Change Is Coming" resonating with voters

Mahamudu Bawumia (NPP) - 14.5% Market Price

• Current Vice President
• Struggling to distance himself from economic crisis
• Better traditional media presence (7.4M impressions)
• Facing historical pattern of power alternation
• Campaign slogan "It Is Possible" showing limited traction

Nana Kwame Bediako (New Force) - 3.1% Market Price

• Growing social media presence
• Appeals to younger voters
• Limited organizational infrastructure
• Polling at 4.6%

Alan Kyerematen (Butterfly) - 0.8% Market Price

• Former NPP member
• Limited support base
• Polling shows minimal chance of victory

Key Factors to Watch

1. Economic Recovery Progress

   • Any improvements could boost NPP chances
   • Continued crisis favors opposition

2. Voter Turnout

   • Historical participation rates ~78.9%
   • Youth voter engagement crucial

3. Regional Dynamics

   • Traditional stronghold performance
   • Impact of new political movements

4. Campaign Developments

   • Potential alliances/coalitions
   • Last-minute scandals or developments