The global temperature outlook for 2024 presents a critical forecasting challenge, with multiple expert analyses suggesting significant warming driven by both long-term climate change and a moderate to strong El Niño event. Current projections from leading climate institutions indicate 2024 is likely to be among the warmest years on record, with temperatures expected to fall in the range of 1.28-1.30°C above pre-industrial levels. Key factors influencing the 2024 temperature outlook include the ongoing El Niño event, which is expected to peak in early 2024, reduced aerosol cooling effects from shipping emissions changes, and the continued impact of greenhouse gas emissions. The consensus among climate scientists points to a high probability of temperatures remaining elevated throughout 2024, though falling short of the 1.5°C threshold that has garnered significant attention in climate policy discussions.

Global Temperature Analysis for 2024

Current Climate Context

• 2023 has been the warmest year on record, with temperatures approximately 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels
• A moderate El Niño event developed in 2023 and is expected to influence temperatures into 2024
• Reduced aerosol emissions from shipping and industrial sources may be amplifying warming effects
• Long-term warming trend continues at approximately 0.2°C per decade

Analysis of Market Outcomes

>1.30°C Scenario (4.9% market probability)

• Requires stronger than expected El Niño effects
• Would need additional amplifying factors beyond current projections
• Considered unlikely based on current data and modeling

<1.22°C Scenario (0.7% market probability)

• Would require significant cooling effect or El Niño collapse
• Inconsistent with current warming trends and conditions
• Extremely low probability given established baseline

1.22-1.24°C Range (0.5% market probability)

• Too low given current conditions and trends
• Would require unexpected cooling factors
• Market appropriately prices this as highly unlikely

1.25-1.27°C Range (9.4% market probability)

• Possible but would require moderation of current trends
• Below most model projections
• Market may be slightly overpricing this range

1.28-1.30°C Range (85.5% market probability)

• Aligns with most expert projections
• Consistent with El Niño influence and background warming
• Most likely outcome based on available data

Key Factors to Watch

1. El Niño Evolution

   • Current strength and development pattern
   • Potential peak timing in early 2024
   • Transition possibilities later in year

2. Aerosol Effects

   • Continued impact of shipping emission changes
   • Industrial emission patterns
   • Regional pollution controls

3. Ocean Heat Content

   • Continuing record levels
   • Influence on global temperatures
   • Regional distribution patterns

4. Policy Developments

   • Implementation of climate agreements
   • Regional emission control measures
   • International cooperation efforts