← Back to Events
Highest grossing movie in 2024?
This is a market on predicting which film will have the highest box office earnings in 2024.
Event Details
Total Volume: $72.0M
24h Volume: $1.4M
Total Liquidity: $2.9M
Markets: 7
Event Ends: 12/30/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The 2024 box office race represents a complex prediction challenge, with several major franchises and sequels competing for the top spot. Based on current box office data and industry analysis, Inside Out 2 has emerged as the front-runner, with the market showing strong conviction at 89.5% probability.
The competitive landscape has been significantly shaped by the 2023 Hollywood strikes, which pushed some major releases into 2025. Current box office data shows Dune: Part Two leading year-to-date earnings at $204.6M worldwide, but with several major releases still to come. The success of family-friendly animated films historically, combined with Pixar's strong track record and the original Inside Out's performance, helps explain the market's strong lean toward Inside Out 2.
Analysis
Economic and Industry Context
Current Box Office Environment
- 2024 started slowly with no films exceeding $100M domestically in January
- Industry still recovering from 2023 strikes impact
- Several major releases pushed to 2025, creating less competition
Performance Patterns
- Family/animated films showing consistent strength
- Franchise fatigue affecting some superhero properties
- International market increasingly important for total gross
Analysis of Major Contenders
Inside Out 2 (89.5% Yes)
Strengths:
- Original grossed $858M worldwide
- Strong family appeal
- Pixar brand recognition
- Summer release timing (June 14)
- Limited animation competition
Weaknesses:
- Sequel uncertainty
- Changed cultural landscape since 2015
Deadpool 3 (0.4% Yes)
Strengths:
- Hugh Jackman/Wolverine appeal
- Marvel connection
- R-rated success history
Weaknesses:
- R-rating limits audience
- Superhero fatigue
- Later release date (July 26)
Other Major Contenders
- Dune: Part Two: Strong start but likely peaked
- Joker 2: Musical element adds uncertainty
- Furiosa: Action franchise but niche appeal
- Despicable Me 4: Family appeal but franchise age
Key Success Factors
- Release Timing
- Summer positioning critical
- Holiday season competition
- Spacing between major releases
- Marketing/Buzz
- Social media engagement
- Critical reception
- Word of mouth
- Demographics
- Family audience availability
- International appeal
- Genre preferences
Prediction
Inside Out 2 appears most likely to achieve highest gross in 2024, with an estimated 85% probability. While slightly below current market price, this still represents strong conviction. Deadpool 3 presents the strongest alternative case at ~5% probability, with all other contenders collectively around 10%. The market appears slightly overconfident on Inside Out 2 but has correctly identified it as the clear favorite.
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?
Yes:85.0%
No:15.0%
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024?
Yes:5.0%
No:95.0%
Will another movie gross most in 2024?
Yes:10.0%
No:90.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10