The November 2025 jobs report presents a complex forecasting challenge, as it sits at the intersection of multiple economic trends including demographic shifts, technological changes, and potential policy adjustments. Current BLS projections suggest a gradual slowdown in job growth over the coming years, with annual job growth expected to average around 0.4% through 2032. The market currently appears somewhat fragmented in its expectations, with meaningful probability assigned across all ranges from <100k to >250k jobs. This dispersion reflects significant uncertainty about the medium-term economic outlook, particularly given the Federal Reserve's ongoing efforts to achieve a "soft landing" while managing inflation. Goldman Sachs projects job growth will moderate to around 100,000 per month by late 2024, suggesting potential for relatively modest gains by late 2025.

Economic Background

Current Labor Market Conditions

• Job growth has been moderating but remains relatively robust in late 2024
• Unemployment rate holding steady around 3.9%
• Wage growth showing signs of cooling, supporting Fed's inflation fight

Demographic and Structural Factors

• Aging population reducing labor force participation
• Increasing retirement of Baby Boomers creating persistent labor shortages
• Growing importance of healthcare and technology sectors in job creation

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

<100k Jobs (+12.5% probability)

• Could occur if:
  • Economic slowdown intensifies
  • Labor shortages constrain hiring
  • Fed policy becomes more restrictive
• Historical precedent shows this level is relatively rare outside recessions

100-150k Jobs (+17.0% probability)

• Aligns with Goldman Sachs projections for late 2024
• Represents "maintenance level" job growth
• Could reflect natural cooling of labor market

150-200k Jobs (+19.0% probability)

• Close to recent historical average
• Would suggest continued moderate expansion
• Balanced between growth and sustainability

200-250k Jobs (+29.5% probability)

• Currently viewed as most likely outcome
• Would indicate stronger-than-expected growth
• Supported by healthcare/technology sector expansion

>250k Jobs (+24.5% probability)

• Would require significant economic momentum
• Possible if labor shortages drive aggressive hiring
• May occur with seasonal factors (holiday hiring)

Key Factors to Watch

1. Federal Reserve Policy

• Interest rate decisions through 2024-25
• Communication about inflation targets
• Balance sheet management

2. Sectoral Trends

• Healthcare employment growth
• Technology sector hiring
• Manufacturing activity

3. Economic Indicators

• GDP growth trajectory
• Consumer spending patterns
• Business investment levels

4. Labor Market Dynamics

• Labor force participation rates
• Wage growth trends
• Quit rates and job openings