The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been one of the most active on record, driven by unusually warm ocean temperatures and La Niña conditions. NOAA's early season forecast predicted 17-25 named storms, and current data shows we are tracking within that range as the season nears its end in late November. Based on the current date (November 28, 2024) and comprehensive analysis of meteorological data and storm patterns throughout the season, we can now make high-confidence predictions about the final storm count. The prediction markets are showing strong convergence around the 16-20 named storms range, which aligns with the actual developments observed during this active but not record-breaking season.

2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Analysis

Season Overview

• Season officially runs June 1 - November 30
• NOAA initially forecasted 17-25 named storms
• Environmental conditions favored above-average activity:
  • Record warm ocean temperatures
  • La Niña conditions
  • Reduced wind shear
  • Enhanced west African monsoon

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

Less than 16 Named Storms

• Probability: ~0%
• Already exceeded this threshold during the season
• Can be definitively ruled out

16-20 Named Storms

• Probability: ~99.7%
• Most likely outcome based on current data
• Aligns with seasonal patterns and conditions
• Consistent with historical precedents for active seasons

21-25 Named Storms

• Probability: ~0.3%
• Would require additional storm formation very late in season
• Unlikely given the late date and cooling conditions
• Historical data shows decreased storm formation in late November

More than 25 Named Storms

• Probability: ~0.1%
• Virtually impossible at this stage
• Would require unprecedented late-season activity
• No meteorological conditions support this outcome

Key Influencing Factors

1. Ocean Temperatures

• Record warm temperatures throughout season
• Provided energy for storm development
• Beginning to cool as winter approaches

2. Climate Patterns

• La Niña conditions enhanced storm formation
• Reduced wind shear favorable for development
• West African monsoon activity supported storm genesis

3. Seasonal Timing

• Late November typically sees reduced activity
• Season officially ends November 30
• Off-season storms are rare but possible

Recent Developments

• Season tracking within predicted range
• Late-season activity diminishing
• Ocean temperatures beginning seasonal cooling
• Most active period of season has passed