SpaceX's Starship program has shown significant progress in 2024, with successful launches and key technical achievements, though also facing notable challenges. The third test flight in March 2024 demonstrated important capabilities but also revealed areas needing improvement, while SpaceX has implemented corrective actions and received FAA clearance to proceed with future launches. The prediction markets currently show strong confidence (95.5%) that exactly four successful launches will occur in 2024, with very low probabilities for other outcomes. This consensus appears to be based on SpaceX's demonstrated launch capabilities, planned improvements, and remaining time in 2024 (approximately one month), balanced against technical and regulatory hurdles.

Current Status

Recent Developments

• SpaceX completed its third test flight in March 2024
• FAA investigation of previous flights concluded
• 17 corrective actions identified and being implemented
• SpaceX targeting rapid launch cadence improvements

Technical Progress

• Successful stage separation achieved
• Reached outer space (93 miles altitude)
• Improvements in engine reliability
• New electric steering system implementation

Analysis of Outcomes

Zero to Three Launches (0% Probability)

• Already exceeded by actual launches in 2024
• Market correctly prices these at 0%

Four Launches (95.5% Probability)

• Most likely scenario given:
  • Demonstrated launch capability
  • Limited time remaining in 2024
  • Regulatory clearances obtained
  • Technical improvements implemented

Five or More Launches (4.8% Probability)

• Challenging given:
  • Time constraints
  • Need for FAA approvals
  • Technical complexity
  • Historical launch cadence

Key Factors to Watch

Technical

• Success of recent improvements
• Reusability achievements
• Engine performance metrics

Regulatory

• FAA approval timelines
• Safety requirements compliance
• Environmental clearances

Operational

• Launch site readiness
• Production capacity
• Weather conditions
• Recovery operations