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Hyperliquid token launch wen?
This is a market group over when Hyperliquid (https://hyperliquid.xyz/) launches a token.
Event Details
Total Volume: $1.6M
24h Volume: $529.4K
Total Liquidity: $61.5K
Markets: 5
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
Based on the available search results and market data, the question of Hyperliquid's token launch timing appears to have largely been resolved, with markets showing near-certainty (99.4%) that the launch occurred in November 2023. This aligns with multiple sources indicating planned token launches and IDOs in mid-November 2023.
The market consensus reflects a clear resolution of uncertainty, with traders having priced in the November launch and showing very low probability assignments to alternative timeframes. The historical data shows progression from uncertainty in September/October to strong convergence on the November outcome.
Analysis
Market Analysis: Hyperliquid Token Launch Timing
Historical Context
- Initial uncertainty in September/October 2023 about launch timing
- Multiple IDOs scheduled for mid-November 2023
- Market sentiment shifted strongly toward November launch window
- Current market prices reflect post-event certainty
Outcome Analysis
September 2023 (0% Yes / 100% No)
- ✓ Already resolved - no launch occurred
- Historical reference point only
October 2023 (0% Yes / 100% No)
- ✓ Already resolved - no launch occurred
- Historical reference point only
November 2023 (99.4% Yes / 0.7% No)
- Strong market consensus on November launch
- Supported by multiple IDO announcements
- Aligns with broader market activity timing
- Near-certainty pricing suggests event occurred
December 2023 (0.8% Yes / 99.3% No)
- Very low probability given November consensus
- Market pricing suggests redundant outcome
- No evidence supporting December timing
No Launch in 2024 (0.4% Yes / 99.7% No)
- Market pricing indicates launch already occurred
- Consistent with November 2023 timing
- Very low uncertainty remaining
Key Factors
- Timeline Verification
- Multiple sources confirming November IDOs
- Clear market convergence on outcome
- Post-event certainty in pricing
- Market Context
- Broader crypto market conditions supportive
- Multiple token launches in Q4 2023
- Active trading environment
- Project Development
- Coordinated IDO scheduling
- Professional launch execution
- Market infrastructure readiness
Recent Developments
- Market prices show strong resolution
- Historical uncertainty has been eliminated
- Trading activity confirms November timing
Prediction
Based on market data and supporting evidence, I assess with very high confidence that Hyperliquid launched its token in November 2023. The market prices reflect post-event certainty, with 99.4% probability assigned to the November outcome. All other timeframes show near-zero probability of being correct, consistent with an event that has already occurred.
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in September?
Yes:0.0%
No:100.0%
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in October?
Yes:0.0%
No:100.0%
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November?
Yes:99.4%
No:60.0%
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December?
Yes:80.0%
No:99.2%
Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in 2024?
Yes:40.0%
No:99.6%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10