Iran strike on Israel before December?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate between October 31, 12:00 PM ET and November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Event Details
Event Analysis
Summary
Analysis
Current Situation Analysis
Regional Context
- Ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict since October 7, 2023 attack
- Multiple Iranian-backed militia groups actively engaging Israeli forces
- Over 70 recorded attacks by Iranian proxies against US forces in Iraq/Syria
- Humanitarian pauses and hostage exchanges indicating some diplomatic engagement
Iranian Military Capabilities
- Recent unveiling of Fattah-2 hypersonic missile with claimed 2,000km range
- Largest ballistic missile arsenal in Middle East
- Demonstrated ability to coordinate proxy forces across multiple fronts
- Active military exercises by IRGC showing readiness
Key Factors Influencing Likelihood
Factors Decreasing Probability
- Iran's consistent strategy of proxy warfare rather than direct engagement
- Risk of broader conflict with US and allied forces
- Current focus on diplomatic and proxy pressure rather than direct military action
- Successful deployment of proxy forces reducing need for direct involvement
Factors Increasing Probability
- Escalating regional tensions
- Enhanced missile capabilities
- Public statements threatening retaliation
- Potential for miscalculation in proxy engagements
Recent Developments
- Temporary pause in proxy attacks during Gaza humanitarian cease-fire
- Continued Israeli strikes on Iranian-linked targets in Syria
- Maritime incidents involving Israeli shipping
- Ongoing diplomatic efforts by Iran to unite regional opposition to Israel
Key Monitoring Points
- Changes in Iranian military positioning
- Escalation of proxy conflicts
- Israeli military actions against Iranian interests
- US military presence and engagement
- Breakdown of current diplomatic initiatives
Prediction
Iran strike on Israel before December?
Sources
- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/29/us/politics/israel-iran-gaza-us-attacks.html
- https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/11/21/iran-unveils-new-missile-it-claims-is-hypersonic/
- https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-november-21-2023
- https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-november-26-2023