Israel military action against Iraq before December?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iraqi soil, airspace, or maritime territory between November 11, 2024 12:00 PM ET, and November 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iraqi soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be Israeli government confirmation or reporting confirmed by authentic video and photo evidence including satellite imagery. However an overwhelming consensus of media reporting may also be used.
Event Details
Event Analysis
Summary
Analysis
Current Situation
Regional Context
- Israel is engaged in intensive military operations in Gaza following Hamas's October 7 attack
- Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have conducted over 100 attacks on US forces since mid-October
- US forces have responded with airstrikes against militia targets in Iraq
- A temporary pause in hostilities occurred during hostage exchanges between Israel and Hamas
Military Posture
- Israeli military resources are primarily committed to:
- Ground operations in Gaza
- Defense against Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon
- Security operations in the West Bank
- No indication of preparations for operations against Iraq
- US maintaining military presence in Iraq and conducting retaliatory strikes against militias
Key Factors to Watch
- Escalation Triggers
- Direct attacks by Iraqi militias against Israel
- Discovery of Iranian weapons transfers through Iraq
- Major destabilization of Iraqi government
- Constraining Factors
- Limited Israeli military bandwidth given Gaza operations
- US preference for handling militia threats in Iraq
- Risk of broader regional conflict
- Iraqi government opposition to violations of sovereignty
- Recent Developments
- US airstrikes against Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq
- Temporary pause in militia attacks during Gaza ceasefire
- Ongoing diplomatic efforts for longer-term Gaza ceasefire
Market Implications
Reasons Supporting "No" (96.1%)
- Israel's military focus on Gaza and immediate threats
- US taking lead on responding to Iraqi militia attacks
- No historical precedent for Israeli strikes in Iraq
- High diplomatic/military costs of opening new front
Reasons Supporting "Yes" (3.9%)
- Potential for significant escalation by Iraqi militias
- Iranian weapons transfers through Iraq to other fronts
- Possible intelligence-driven preventive strikes
- Spillover from broader regional conflict
Prediction
Israel military action against Iraq before December?
Sources
- https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-november-26-2023
- https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/11/21/US-forces-attacked-on-Iraq-airbase-respond-in-self-defense-US-military-official
- https://www.semafor.com/article/12/26/2023/middle-east-conflict-expands-further-with-us-strikes-in-iraq
- https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/iraq-crossroads-hamas-gaza-shia-militias/