Israel military strike against Iran in November?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies between November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET (inclusive), and November 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Event Details
Event Analysis
Summary
Analysis
Current Regional Context
- Ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict since October 2023 has created heightened regional tensions
- Iranian support for proxy forces (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) continues but remains indirect
- US maintains significant military presence in region as deterrent
- Israel focusing military operations primarily on Gaza and immediate threats
Analysis of Potential Outcomes
Yes Outcome (Israeli Strike on Iran) - Low Probability
Factors supporting:
- Continued provocations by Iranian-backed forces
- Israel's demonstrated willingness to conduct military operations
- Growing coordination among Iranian proxies that could trigger response
Factors against:
- Israel's current military focus on Gaza
- US presence acting as stabilizing force
- High costs and risks of direct confrontation
- Preference for proxy warfare over direct engagement
No Outcome (No Strike) - High Probability
Supporting factors:
- Historical preference for proxy conflicts
- Current resource commitment to Gaza operations
- International diplomatic pressures
- Effective containment through existing military operations
Key Factors to Watch
- Escalation of attacks by Iranian proxies
- Changes in US military positioning in region
- Israeli military success/failure in Gaza operations
- Iranian nuclear program developments
- Regional diplomatic initiatives
Recent Developments
- Increased coordination among Iranian-backed groups
- Continued Israeli focus on Gaza operations
- US maintenance of regional military presence
- Ongoing diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation
Prediction
Israel military strike against Iran in November?
Sources
- https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-november-21-2023
- https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-november-7-2023
- https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/10/23/iran-looks-for-a-plan-on-day-17-of-the-war/
- https://israel-alma.org/2023/11/29/the-radwan-unit-is-capable-of-carrying-out-an-invasion-of-the-galilee-at-any-given-moment/