The question of whether Israel's 25th Knesset will dissolve between June 23 and December 31, 2024, occurs against a backdrop of significant political upheaval in Israel. The current Netanyahu coalition government faces mounting pressures from both internal political divisions and public dissatisfaction following the October 2023 Hamas attacks and subsequent war in Gaza. While historical patterns show frequent government dissolutions in Israel's recent past (with five elections occurring in just four years), the current wartime context and the dissolution of the war cabinet in June 2024 create unique dynamics. Recent polling shows declining support for Netanyahu's Likud party and growing strength in the opposition, but coalition partners may be hesitant to force new elections during an ongoing conflict.

Political Background

• Current government formed in December 2022 under Netanyahu's leadership
• Coalition includes Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and other right-wing parties
• War cabinet formed October 2023, dissolved June 2024
• Next scheduled election not due until October 2026

Current Political Dynamics

• Netanyahu facing declining popularity
  • Only 60% of previous Likud voters supporting him
  • Opposition gaining strength with 78 seats vs coalition's 42
  • Strong public desire for leadership change after war

Key Factors to Watch

1. War Progress

   • Duration and outcome of Gaza conflict
   • Regional tensions with Iran
   • Public satisfaction with military campaign

2. Coalition Stability

   • Relations between Netanyahu and far-right partners
   • Potential defections from coalition
   • Opposition unity and strategy

3. Economic Impacts

   • War's effect on Israeli economy
   • Public sentiment about economic management
   • Budget considerations

Recent Developments

• War cabinet dissolution in June 2024
• Declining poll numbers for Netanyahu
• Potential emergence of new political parties
• Growing calls for post-war elections

Analysis of Outcomes

Yes (Dissolution)

Pros:

• Strong public dissatisfaction
• Historical precedent for frequent dissolutions
• Weakening coalition numbers

Cons:

• Wartime context discourages political upheaval
• Coalition partners hesitant to force elections
• Time window relatively short (6 months)

No (No Dissolution)

Pros:

• Wartime stability concerns
• Recent war cabinet dissolution reduces immediate pressure
• Coalition survival instincts
• Short timeframe remaining in 2024

Cons:

• Growing opposition strength
• Public demand for change
• Historical instability of Israeli coalitions