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Israel strikes Iranian oil in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against an Iranian oil or gas facility, inclusive of all Iranian oil rigs, or refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on Iranian soil or within Iranian maritime territory, between November 5 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetec actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

Event Details

Total Volume: $47.6K
24h Volume: $116
Total Liquidity: $12.4K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The question of whether Israel will conduct military strikes against Iranian oil infrastructure in 2024 sits at the intersection of several complex geopolitical dynamics. The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, increasing Iranian proxy activities, and broader regional tensions create a volatile environment that could precipitate such action. However, the specific timing window (November 5 - December 31, 2024) and high strategic stakes involved make this a particularly nuanced prediction. Recent developments, including Iranian missile strikes in Iraq and Syria in January 2024, along with escalating tensions between Israel and Iranian-backed groups, suggest increasing military engagement. However, direct strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure would represent a significant escalation beyond current patterns of conflict, carrying substantial risks of broader regional warfare and global economic disruption.

Analysis

Economic & Strategic Context

Current Regional Dynamics

  • Ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict has heightened tensions between Israel and Iran
  • Iranian proxy groups have conducted over 70 attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria
  • Recent Iranian strikes in Erbil demonstrate willingness to conduct cross-border operations
  • Oil infrastructure attacks could severely impact global energy markets and economies

Military Considerations

  • Israel has demonstrated capability to conduct long-range strikes
  • Iranian oil infrastructure represents strategic target but risks major escalation
  • US military presence in region adds complexity to strategic calculations
  • Timing window follows US presidential election, potentially affecting US support

Key Factors to Watch

Immediate Triggers

  • Escalation of proxy attacks on Israeli interests
  • Direct evidence of Iranian support for Hamas
  • Threats to Israeli energy infrastructure
  • Changes in US military posture in region

Strategic Indicators

  • Outcome of US presidential election
  • Progress of Israel-Hamas conflict
  • Iranian nuclear program developments
  • Regional diplomatic initiatives

Risk Factors

  • Global oil market conditions
  • International diplomatic pressure
  • Iranian retaliatory capabilities
  • Regional alliance dynamics

Recent Developments

  1. January 2024 Iranian strikes in Iraq demonstrate willingness for direct action
  2. Continued attacks by Iranian-backed groups on US forces
  3. Israeli operations against Iranian positions in Syria
  4. Growing international pressure regarding Gaza operations

Prediction

Based on the available evidence, I assess a 15% probability that Israel will strike Iranian oil infrastructure between November 5-December 31, 2024. While regional tensions are high and military engagement continues to escalate, the specific timing window and extreme strategic risks involved make such strikes relatively unlikely. The market appears overly confident in a "No" outcome at 95.8%, underestimating the possibility of significant escalation.

Israel strikes Iranian oil in 2024?

Yes:15.0%
No:85.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Israel strikes Iranian oil in 2024?

Yes
4.0%
No
96.0%
Liquidity: $12.4K
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