Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024?

The question of whether Israel will withdraw its ground forces from Gaza in 2024 has become increasingly clear as the conflict intensifies. Following Hamas's October 7 attack, Israel launched extensive military operations in Gaza with stated goals of dismantling Hamas and securing the return of hostages. Recent statements from Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu and military leaders, strongly indicate their intention to continue operations throughout 2024. The current market probabilities (11.2% Yes, 88.8% No) appear well-aligned with available evidence. Multiple sources indicate Israel is preparing for a prolonged conflict, with military leadership explicitly stating operations will continue through 2024. While there are some indications of troop adjustments and potential shifts in strategy, these appear to be tactical rather than signs of an impending full withdrawal.

Current Situation

Military Operations

• Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are currently engaged in extensive ground operations across Gaza
• Military leadership has announced plans to continue operations throughout 2024
• Recent troop adjustments appear tactical rather than strategic withdrawals

Political Context

• Netanyahu government maintains focus on complete dismantling of Hamas
• Internal political pressures show some discord but generally support continued operations
• International pressure growing but hasn't significantly altered Israeli strategy

Key Factors Affecting Withdrawal Likelihood

Military Objectives

• Only 20-30% of Hamas military wing reportedly neutralized
• Continued focus on dismantling tunnel networks and military infrastructure
• Hostage situation remains unresolved

Political Considerations

• Domestic:

  • Strong public support for continuing operations
  • Some internal criticism of strategy but not timeline
  • Election considerations may extend conflict

• International:

  • Growing pressure for humanitarian access
  • US relationship showing strain but maintaining support
  • Regional tensions with Hezbollah create additional complications

Humanitarian Situation

• Civilian casualties exceeding 21,000
• 85% of Gaza population displaced
• Infrastructure heavily damaged

Recent Developments

1. IDF announcing adjustment of forces but maintaining presence
2. Military leadership explicitly stating operations will continue through 2024
3. Defense Minister Gallant's "four corner" plan indicates long-term Israeli security control

Market Implications

• Current "No" probability of 88.8% appears justified
• Limited upside in taking "Yes" positions
• Key risks to "No" position would be:
  • Dramatic shift in US policy
  • Major military success against Hamas
  • Unexpected political changes in Israel