The question of whether an official ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will occur by the end of 2024 has become increasingly complex as the conflict continues to escalate. Following Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack on Israel and the subsequent military response, both sides have shown limited appetite for a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, with Israel committed to a long-term military campaign and Hamas rejecting negotiation efforts. The search results indicate several key developments that suggest a ceasefire is unlikely in 2024. The Israeli military has explicitly stated they expect operations to continue throughout 2024, while Hamas has indicated they will reject hostage agreement negotiations until the war ends. Though there have been limited temporary humanitarian pauses, the conditions for a broader ceasefire appear distant, with both sides maintaining hardline positions.

Analysis of Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Prospects

Current Situation

• Ongoing military conflict following October 7, 2023 Hamas attack
• Over 20,000 Palestinian casualties reported
• Israeli military operations focused on dismantling Hamas
• Limited success of previous temporary ceasefires
• Breakdown in hostage negotiations

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

Scenario 1: Ceasefire Achieved (37.5%)

Supporting Factors:

• International pressure for peace
• Humanitarian crisis in Gaza
• Mediation efforts by Qatar and other parties
• Potential hostage negotiations

Challenges:

• Israeli military committed to long-term campaign
• Hamas rejection of negotiations
• Deep mutual distrust
• Complex regional dynamics

Scenario 2: No Ceasefire (62.5%)

Supporting Factors:

• IDF planning for year-long campaign
• Hamas's stated position against negotiations
• Netanyahu's commitment to military solution
• Historical pattern of prolonged conflicts
• Regional complications (Hezbollah, Iran)

Key Factors to Watch

1. Military Developments

• Progress of IDF operations in Gaza
• Hamas's military capability and resistance
• Regional escalation risks

2. Diplomatic Efforts

• International mediation attempts
• US pressure on Israel
• Arab states' involvement
• UN resolutions and initiatives

3. Humanitarian Situation

• Civilian casualties
• Displacement crisis
• Access to aid
• Public opinion pressure

4. Political Dynamics

• Israeli domestic politics
• Hamas leadership decisions
• Regional stability
• US election impact

Recent Developments

• IDF statements expecting conflict through 2024
• Hamas rejection of hostage negotiations
• Continued military operations in Khan Younis
• Growing international concern over civilian casualties