OddsChad
← Back to Events

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel and Hezbollah both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two parties that will go into effect by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hezbollah military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both parties. A humanitarian pause will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. If only one party (e.g. only Israel, or only Hezbollah) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Event Details

Total Volume: $15.1M
24h Volume: $4.9M
Total Liquidity: $1.0M
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which includes Hezbollah, was reached and implemented on November 27, 2024. Both parties have officially announced the ceasefire, which meets the criteria for resolving this market to "Yes". The agreement is more comprehensive than a humanitarian pause, as it includes a 60-day cessation of hostilities and plans for troop withdrawals.

Analysis

Key Points Supporting "Yes" Resolution

  1. Official Announcements:

    • The Israeli Security Cabinet approved the deal on November 26, 2024.
    • Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati issued strong support for the agreement.
    • Both Israel and Lebanon (including Hezbollah) are parties to the agreement.

  2. Scope of the Agreement:

    • The ceasefire pertains to all theaters of military conflict between the parties.
    • It includes a 60-day transition period, exceeding a mere humanitarian pause.

  3. Implementation:

    • The ceasefire went into effect on November 27, 2024, at 02:00 GMT.
    • It meets the deadline of December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

  4. International Mediation:

    • The United States and France brokered the agreement, adding credibility to its official nature.

Potential Challenges

  1. Violations:

    • There have been reports of ceasefire violations by both sides within the first two days.
    • However, these violations do not negate the official status of the ceasefire agreement.

  2. Long-term Stability:

    • The agreement is designed for an initial 60-day period.
    • Long-term stability remains uncertain, but this does not affect the market resolution.

Prediction

Based on the available information, this market should resolve to "Yes". The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon (including Hezbollah) meets all the criteria specified in the decision-making mechanism. It has been officially announced by both parties, covers all theaters of conflict, and was implemented before the December 31, 2024 deadline. While there are concerns about violations and long-term stability, these factors do not impact the resolution of this market according to the specified criteria.

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

Yes:99.0%
No:1.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10

Sources

Market Options

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

Yes
99.0%
No
1.0%
Liquidity: $1.0M
Trade →