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Israel x Iran peace deal in 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of Israel and Iran both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two countries that will go into effect by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of a pause in the Israel-Iran military conflict, and be declared through official channels by both countries. If only one country (e.g. only Israel, or only Iran) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and the Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Event Details
Total Volume: $66.2K
24h Volume: $20
Total Liquidity: $25.9K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The prospect of a peace deal between Israel and Iran by the end of 2024 appears highly unlikely given current geopolitical circumstances and recent developments. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, which began with Hamas's October 7 attack, has significantly escalated tensions between Israel and Iran, with Iran continuing to support Hamas and other militant groups in the region.
Analysis of recent diplomatic developments, military actions, and political statements from both sides indicates virtually no progress toward peace negotiations. Iran maintains its strategic support for anti-Israel groups while pursuing nuclear capabilities, while Israel focuses on military objectives against Hamas and maintains a hardline stance against Iran. The domestic political situations in both countries, particularly Netanyahu's precarious position in Israel, further complicate any potential for diplomatic breakthrough.
Analysis
Current Geopolitical Context
Regional Tensions
- Ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict since October 7, 2023
- Iran's continued support for Hamas and Hezbollah
- Recent Iranian missile strikes in Iraq and Syria (January 2024)
- Deteriorating Israel-Russia relations affecting potential mediation
Domestic Political Factors
- Netanyahu's weakened political position in Israel
- Internal divisions within Iran between hardliners and moderates
- Public sentiment in both countries opposing reconciliation
- Economic pressures affecting both nations' decision-making
Analysis of Potential Outcomes
Yes (Peace Deal Achieved)
Probability: ~3%
- Would require dramatic shift in regional dynamics
- Both governments would need to officially announce agreement
- Significant domestic opposition in both countries
- No current diplomatic channels or negotiations reported
No (No Peace Deal)
Probability: ~97%
- Aligned with current trajectory of relations
- Supported by ongoing military tensions
- Consistent with historical antagonism
- Reinforced by recent escalations and proxy conflicts
Key Factors to Watch
Military Developments
- Further escalation of Israel-Hamas conflict
- Iranian nuclear program progress
- Regional proxy conflicts
- Israeli military responses to Iranian actions
Diplomatic Indicators
- Any secret back-channel negotiations
- Changes in US-Iran relations
- Regional peace initiatives
- Role of potential mediators (China, Russia, etc.)
Political Changes
- Israeli domestic political developments
- Iranian leadership decisions
- Regional alignment shifts
- International diplomatic efforts
Recent Developments
- Iran's January 2024 missile strikes
- Ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict
- Deteriorating Israel-Russia relations
- Increased Iran-Hamas cooperation
Prediction
Based on comprehensive analysis of current conditions and trends, I predict with high confidence (9/10) that no peace deal will be achieved between Israel and Iran by December 31, 2024. The combination of ongoing military conflicts, domestic political constraints, and deep-seated ideological differences makes diplomatic breakthrough extremely unlikely within this timeframe.
Israel x Iran peace deal in 2024
Yes:3.0%
No:97.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/30/why-are-ties-between-russia-and-israel-at-lowest-point-since-fall-of-the-soviet-union
- https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/04/iran-hamas-gaza-israel-regional-war/
- https://www.britannica.com/topic/Abraham-Accords
- https://www.csis.org/analysis/israel-hamas-conflict-implications-nuclear-security-region
- https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/27/netanyahu-hold-power-hamas-gaza-likud-israel/