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Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ali Khamenei ceases to be Supreme Leader of Iran of for any length of time between September 30, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Khamenei ceases to be Supreme Leader of Iran for any length of time within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". This market will not resolve to "No" until its timeframe expires and Khamenei has remained Supreme Leader for the entire duration without interruption. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information released by the government of Iran, however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $808.3K
24h Volume: $1.6K
Total Liquidity: $70.9K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market focuses on whether Ali Khamenei, Iran's 84-year-old Supreme Leader, will cease to hold his position during the specified period in late 2024. The question has gained particular relevance given Khamenei's advanced age, recent political developments in Iran, and the March 2024 elections for both parliament and the Assembly of Experts.
The market currently shows strong confidence (91.5%) that Khamenei will remain in power through 2024, which aligns with several key factors: his continued public appearances, the consolidation of power among his supporters in recent elections, and the lack of clear succession planning. However, given his age and the complex political dynamics in Iran, there remain scenarios that could lead to a change in leadership during the specified timeframe.
Analysis
Background and Current Situation
- Khamenei, at 84, has been Supreme Leader since 1989
- The March 2024 elections saw consolidation of hardline power through strict vetting of candidates
- Current political climate shows strong institutional support for Khamenei's continued leadership
Analysis of Potential Outcomes
Outcome 1: Khamenei Remains Supreme Leader (91.5%)
Factors supporting this outcome:
- Recent election results strengthening hardliner control
- No visible succession process underway
- Strong support from IRGC and key institutions
- Demonstrated ability to maintain power despite protests
Outcome 2: Khamenei Ceases to be Supreme Leader (8.5%)
Potential triggers:
- Health deterioration (age-related risks)
- Political crisis or widespread unrest
- Voluntary step-down to manage succession
- External pressure or regional conflict escalation
Key Factors to Watch
Internal Political Dynamics
- Role of Assembly of Experts in succession planning
- Position of Mojtaba Khamenei (potential successor)
- IRGC's continued support
- Public sentiment and protest movements
External Factors
- Regional conflicts and Iran's involvement
- Relations with Russia and China
- Economic pressures from sanctions
- International diplomatic developments
Recent Developments
- March 2024 elections consolidated hardline control
- Continued support from Putin/Russia demonstrated
- Active involvement in regional conflicts
- No significant health issues publicly reported
Prediction
Based on available evidence, I assess a 90% probability that Khamenei will remain Supreme Leader through 2024. While age-related health risks exist, the institutional structure and recent political developments suggest strong stability in leadership. The 10% probability of change accounts for health risks and potential unexpected political developments.
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?
Yes:10.0%
No:90.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 7/10