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Kim Dotcom extradited in 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Dotcom is extradited to any country by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". "Extradited" to a country means Kim Dotcom must be extradited and physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the country. The resolution source will be official government sources from the relevant extraditing and receiving countries, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Event Details
Total Volume: $23.6K
24h Volume: $0
Total Liquidity: $102
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
Kim Dotcom's extradition case has reached a crucial phase after New Zealand's Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith signed an extradition order in August 2024. This marks a significant development in the 12-year legal battle between Dotcom and U.S. authorities over charges including criminal copyright infringement, racketeering, and money laundering related to his former file-sharing service Megaupload.
While the signing of the extradition order initially suggested movement toward extradition, Dotcom has indicated his intention to pursue further legal challenges and appeals. Given the limited time remaining in 2024 and the complexity of legal proceedings, the market is heavily favoring a "No" outcome for extradition completion by December 31, 2024.
Analysis
Background
- Kim Dotcom was arrested in New Zealand in 2012 during an FBI-coordinated raid
- U.S. authorities allege Megaupload caused over $500 million in losses to the entertainment industry
- Legal battle has involved multiple appeals and challenges over 12 years
- Two co-defendants accepted plea deals, while Dotcom continues to fight extradition
Recent Developments
- August 15, 2024: NZ Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith signed extradition order
- Dotcom given "short period" to consider options and seek legal advice
- Dotcom publicly criticized decision, calling NZ an "obedient US colony"
- Legal challenges and appeals remain possible
Key Factors Affecting Outcome
Arguments for "No" (97.8%)
- Limited time remaining in 2024 (33 days from current date)
- Historical pattern of successful legal delays by Dotcom
- Complexity of judicial review and appeal processes
- Previous appeals have taken years to resolve
- Dotcom's stated intention to continue legal fight
Arguments for "Yes" (2.3%)
- Official extradition order now signed
- Government commitment to proceed with extradition
- Previous Supreme Court ruling supporting extradition
- Precedent of co-defendants reaching plea deals
Critical Uncertainties
- Speed of judicial review process
- Effectiveness of Dotcom's legal challenges
- Political will to expedite proceedings
- Potential emergency legal interventions
Market Analysis
The current market prices accurately reflect the extremely low probability of completing extradition in the remaining month of 2024. Given Dotcom's track record of successful legal delays and the complexity of extradition proceedings, a completion by year-end appears highly unlikely.
Prediction
I agree with the market's strong conviction that Kim Dotcom will not be extradited by December 31, 2024. While the signed extradition order is significant, the remaining timeline is too short for all legal proceedings to conclude. I estimate a 99% probability of "No" and 1% probability of "Yes", making the current "No" position slightly undervalued.
Kim Dotcom extradited in 2024?
Yes:1.0%
No:99.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://www.reuters.com/world/kim-dotcom-be-extradited-new-zealand-after-12-year-fight-with-us-2024-08-15/
- https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/justice-minister-signs-kim-dotcoms-extradition-order/ZIO7RHMUS5B3NCKUEW4QH5C4V4/
- https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y363lw204o
- https://torrentfreak.com/kim-dotcoms-extradition-to-the-u-s-given-green-light-by-new-zealand-240815/