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Macron impeached in 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a proposal to impeach Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, is adopted by both the National Assembly and the Senate by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $26.2K
24h Volume: $0
Total Liquidity: $3.1K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market concerns whether French President Emmanuel Macron will be impeached by both the National Assembly and Senate by December 31, 2024. This comes amid significant political developments in France, including legislative elections held in June/July 2024 that showed weakening support for Macron's party and growing strength of opposition parties.
The market strongly favors no impeachment occurring (97.4%), which aligns with the historical rarity of presidential impeachment in France and the high procedural barriers required. While there are signs of political instability and opposition gains, the limited remaining time in 2024 and lack of concrete impeachment proposals make removal from office highly unlikely before year-end.
Analysis
Political and Legislative Context
Current Political Landscape
- Legislative elections in June/July 2024 showed:
- Rassemblement National (RN) gained 37 seats with 19.01% of votes
- Union de la gauche (UG) secured 32 seats with 18.19%
- Macron's Ensemble party won only 2 seats with 13.02%
- Macron has previously indicated he will likely leave politics in 2027
- New government formed under Prime Minister Gabriel Attal in January 2024
Impeachment Process Requirements
- Must be approved by both National Assembly and Senate
- Requires significant political consensus and coordination
- Limited historical precedent in French politics
- Time constraint: Must occur before December 31, 2024
Key Factors Affecting Outcome
Supporting Impeachment Possibility
- Weak legislative election results for Macron's party
- Growing opposition strength in parliament
- Public dissatisfaction with current administration
- Fragmented political landscape
Against Impeachment Possibility
- Limited time remaining in 2024
- Complex procedural requirements
- No current formal impeachment proposals
- Historical rarity of such actions
- Focus on 2027 transition rather than immediate removal
Recent Developments
- Legislative election results show political realignment
- Opposition parties gaining strength but not yet unified
- Trump's potential return to US presidency could affect international dynamics
Trading Considerations
- Short time window remaining reduces likelihood
- Current market price (2.6% Yes) may be slightly high given barriers
- Limited upside potential for "Yes" positions
- "No" positions offer safe but low-return opportunity
Prediction
Given the procedural barriers, limited remaining time in 2024, and lack of concrete impeachment initiatives, I assess a 1% probability of Macron being impeached by year-end 2024. The current market price of 2.6% for "Yes" appears slightly overvalued. I have high confidence (8/10) in this assessment given the clear timeline constraints and institutional requirements.
Macron impeached in 2024?
Yes:1.0%
No:99.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10