The prediction market focuses on whether Emmanuel Macron will cease to be president of France between August 26 and December 31, 2024. Currently, markets show a strong consensus (95.8%) that Macron will remain in office through 2024. Based on the available sources, while Macron faces various political challenges and declining popularity, there are no clear mechanisms or likely scenarios that would lead to his departure before the end of 2024. His term officially runs until 2027, and recent appearances at events like the World Economic Forum show him actively engaged in governance. While potential successors like Gabriel Attal and Edouard Philippe are positioning themselves for future elections, this appears focused on 2027 rather than any immediate transition.

Analysis of Macron's Presidential Status Through 2024

Current Political Context

• Macron is serving his second term as French president, which runs until 2027
• He has already announced he will "probably" leave politics in 2027
• Current challenges include:
  • Declining popularity and public trust
  • Agricultural sector issues (worst wheat harvest in 40 years)
  • Rising political rivals within his own camp
  • Growing threat from far-right opposition

Potential Outcomes Analysis

Scenario 1: Macron Remains President (95.8% Market Probability)

• Most likely outcome given:
  • No constitutional mechanism for removal
  • Active engagement in governance (WEF appearance, policy initiatives)
  • Lack of immediate succession pressure
  • Historical precedent (French presidents rarely leave mid-term)

Scenario 2: Macron Ceases to be President (4.2% Market Probability)

Possible but unlikely paths:

• Voluntary resignation (very low probability)
• Health issues forcing temporary or permanent departure
• Constitutional crisis/impeachment (no current indication)

Key Factors to Watch

1. Political Stability

   • Public approval ratings
   • Success of policy initiatives
   • Management of agricultural crisis

2. Succession Politics

   • Activities of potential successors (Attal, Philippe)
   • Internal party dynamics
   • Opposition strength

3. External Events

   • Major crises or scandals
   • International developments
   • Economic performance

Recent Developments

• Active participation in World Economic Forum
• Continued engagement with domestic policy
• No indication of plans to step down before 2027