The Venezuelan presidential election of 2024 represents a crucial moment for both the country and President Nicolás Maduro's grip on power. With elections scheduled for July 28, 2024, there is increasing international attention on whether this could mark the end of Maduro's authoritarian rule. However, despite strong opposition polling and widespread public dissatisfaction, Maduro maintains significant control over state institutions and electoral mechanisms. Recent developments, including the disqualification of major opposition candidates and continued manipulation of electoral processes, suggest that Maduro is likely to maintain his grip on power through 2024. While polls show opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia leading Maduro, historical patterns and the regime's entrenched control over key institutions indicate that electoral change remains unlikely without extraordinary circumstances.

Current Political Situation

Maduro's Position

• Currently seeking third term as president
• Controls key state institutions including military and electoral council
• Has successfully maintained power despite economic crisis and international pressure
• Approval ratings at historic lows but retains institutional advantages

Electoral Context

• Presidential election scheduled for July 28, 2024
• Opposition candidate González leads in polls
• Main opposition figure María Corina Machado disqualified
• Electoral integrity concerns persist with pro-Maduro Electoral Council

Key Factors Affecting Outcome

Factors Supporting Maduro's Continuation

• Control over electoral machinery and institutions
• History of successful electoral manipulation
• Military support remains largely intact
• Opposition fragmentation and disqualifications
• Limited effectiveness of international pressure

Potential Removal Scenarios

1. Electoral Defeat + Military Pressure
2. Internal Party/Military Coup
3. Mass Protests Leading to Resignation
4. Health/Personal Issues

Critical Variables to Monitor

Short-term Triggers

• Election campaign developments
• Military loyalty shifts
• Opposition unity
• International sanctions pressure

Medium-term Factors

• Economic conditions
• Public unrest levels
• Regional political dynamics
• International observer access

Recent Developments

• US reimposed some sanctions due to electoral concerns
• Opposition primaries showed strong anti-Maduro sentiment
• Electoral timeline announced with July 28 election date
• Continued repression of opposition activities